Overview news report:
World first: global climate poll
Held in September, the 44 meetings of everyday citizens in 38 countries gave more than 4,400 randomly selected participants the chance to express their views on the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP15).
Ninety per cent of these participants thought reaching a global climate deal at the conference was a matter of urgency, and 89 per cent thought countries such as the USA, Australia and EU nations should commit to short-term emissions targets of 25 to 40 per cent or higher.
This shows a discrepancy between what the citizens want and what policy makers are prepared to deliver. In the lead up to COP15, Australia is currently proposing reductions of 14 per cent (by 2020 according to 1990 levels), the US is proposing a 2 per cent reduction, and the EU is proposing a 20-30 per cent reduction."[The survey] has given politicians a unique insight into the views of ordinary citizens from all corners of the world on the climate crisis," said Danish Minister of Climate Change and Energy and World Wide Views ambassador, Connie Hedegaard.
"It is a powerful signal to the politicians when citizens all over the world agree that action is urgent."
The consultation findings reflect a global consensus on six key issues: the need for strong policy, technology sharing between nations, an international climate change council, increased environmental awareness and education, improvements to climate change technology and the development of consumer incentives to encourage less carbon emissions.
Australian participants were most concerned with committing confidently at COP15 to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius through a legally binding global agreement. It seems likely that such a global accord will hinge on whether global leaders can forsake self-interest and agree to co-operate and share the economic burdens.
Of the 38 countries, China's citizens were least willing to introduce emissions cuts for fast-growing economies.
The Worldwide Views on Global Warming Experts Blogs has more detailed analysis. Not all is well:
The results showed a very strong expression of concern about global warming. There was an overwhelming sense of urgency for achieving a strong climate agreement. In addition there was a pungent message that national politicians heed the deal made in Copenhagen this December.
In my first glance at the data, perhaps the strongest result was that 89% participants affirmed that short term reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries be reduced by 25-40%. This will come as a shock to world leaders who are aiming at targets much lower than that in the immediate future.
At the same time within the aggregate results, there were some moderately worrisome themes.
1. Some 43% of participants world wide seemed to say that a rise of 2 degrees Centigrade or higher is actually permissible. Reading the same figures, it’s also true that 89% of participants overall said that no more than 2 degrees increase would be acceptable. [Is the glass half empty or half full?] From what I’ve read, even 2 degrees increase would spell disaster. Are people becoming acclimated (so to speak) to prospects for dreary future?
2. Another cloud on the horizon was that among some national groups, raising the price of fossil fuels was not uniformly popular. Some 32% of U.S. participants said no price rise was desirable. Evidently Americans want the Age of Happy Motoring to continue forever. A substantial number people in the groups from Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, and UK were also opposed to fuel price hikes.
3. Finally, I was interested in the data from question 2.4 about whether punitive sanctions should be applied. In the combined groups from the U.S.A., 29% said there should be no sanctions or only symbolic ones. This may be a residual expression of the feeling that rules and penalties made in international treaties don’t really apply to America.
I have my own concerns. Understanding the meaning of 2C increase is hard for scientists, forget common man. So not sure how asking people is going to help. Also politics gets mixed in. Chinese are legimately fearful that the west does not want it to prosper - thanks to 100 years of international conflicts and deals. At a recent LSE talk, Ed Miliband, UK Secretary for Energy and Climate Change, talks about the politics of climate change and how to frame it in terms of common good.
Update: Their policy report has a summary of results:
- Make a deal at COP15
- Keep the temperature increase below 2 degrees
- Annex 1 countries should reduce emissions with 25-40 % or more by 2020
- Fast-growing economies should also reduce emissions by 2020
- Low-income developing countries should limit emissions
- Give high priority to an international financial mechanism
- Punish non-complying countries
- Make technology available to everyone
- Strengthen or supplement international institutions
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