Guide to Copenhagen Negotiations

I was looking for some explanatory kind of document that will give me insight into the negotiations at Copenhagen - the process, what makes it hard, what are the politics and personalities etc.

Comprehending Copenhagen: a guide to the international climate change negotiations from the Lowy Insitute, Australia.

From 7-18 December, the world’s attention will be focused on Copenhagen, where representatives of 192 nations will gather in an attempt to strike a new international agreement to respond to the urgent challenge of global climate change. In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Greg Picker and Fergus Green aim to demystify the negotiations and deepen public understanding of this important process. From the expansion of international carbon markets to proposals for curbing tropical deforestation, the paper elucidates the key issues to be negotiated in Copenhagen and outlines the positions of the various countries and groups to each issue. The paper also explains the Conference’s processes, weighs the likely outcomes and considers its potential implications for Australia and beyond.

It might be easier to listen to the presentation by the authors instead.

Just as an example, this is the timetable of the negotiation:

Broadly, negotiations at Copenhagen will likely follow a pattern familiar from previous COPs. The keysteps in the process will likely be as follows:

• Several days before the negotiations formally commence there will be both formal meetings on specific issues between parties and closed meetings of negotiating blocs to fine-tune positions and respond to the latest intelligence.
  
• The first two days will contain a mix of ceremonial fanfare (formally launching the conference), administrative discussions (agreeing the agenda and organising the work schedule) and substantive grandstanding (introductory statements by countries in large plenary meetings with several thousand participants).
• Typically, by the second day, the subsidiary bodies will have their opening plenaries – with up to 1500 people present – involving a similar mix of ceremony, process and substance of an introductory nature. In Copenhagen, however, this step may be skipped or truncated. The current agreement is that the permanent subsidiary bodies will meet in the first week, and adhoc working groups will meet until midway through the second week. It is also possible that a 'Committee of the Whole' may be formed through which all issues are addressed.
• Regardless of the structure of meetings for the subsidiary bodies, by Wednesday 9 December, small group negotiations will commence. Typically, these will be closed meetings. Dozens of different types of these groups will be formed (including 'contact groups', 'informals', 'informal informals', 'friends of the chair' and 'friends of the president') resulting in literally hundreds of negotiating meetings (not counting the truly informal negotiations that happen over a quiet cup of coffee or glass of wine). Small group negotiations will continue until no later than Tuesday 15 December.
• On Monday 14 and Tuesday 15 December, large plenary meetings will be held to agree formally to any issue that has been tentatively agreed in small group negotiations.
• Typically, ministers arrive and become engaged on the Tuesday or Wednesday of the second week (15 to 16 December). However, given the importance of the Copenhagen meeting, the current expectation is that ministers will arrive and begin working on the weekend of 12 and 13 December. The ministerial segment will not conclude until the COP ends. While there will be public statements by countries, the real work of the negotiations will happen in increasingly small ministerial meetings as the week draws to a close. Unusually, a large number of prominent political leaders and heads of state will be attending the negotiations in Copenhagen. They will likely arrive after ministers and can be expected to be engaged in even higher level negotiations as the conference comes to an end.
• While the COP is scheduled to conclude on Friday 18 December, it is virtually inconceivable that it will do so. Negotiations in Bali and Kyoto did not conclude until well into the weekend.
• Copenhagen will conclude when there is a closing plenary that has formally endorsed all elements of the agreement and countries have had an opportunity to express their views on the proceedings. Closing plenaries tend to be long, fraught affairs and are, even at the best of times, the source of much drama. With so much at stake, the closing plenary at Copenhagen will be one to remember.