Impact of climate change on Middle East and North African region (MENA) from the World Bank:
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa Region
According to the latest IPCC assessment, the climate is predicted to become even hotter and drier in most of the MENA region. Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation will increase the occurrence of droughts, an effect that is already materializing in the Maghreb. It is further estimated that an additional 80–100 million people will be exposed by 2025 to water stress, which is likely to result in increased pressure on groundwater resources, which are currently being extracted in most areas beyond the aquifers’ recharge potential. In addition, agriculture yields, especially in rainfed areas, are expected to fluctuate more widely, ultimately falling to a significantly lower long-term average. In urban areas in North Africa, a temperature increase of 1-3 degrees could expose 6–25 million people to coastal flooding. In addition, heat waves, an increased “heat island effect,” water scarcity, decreasing water quality, worsening air quality, and ground ozone formation are likely to affect public health, and more generally lead to challenging living conditions.
Global models predict sea levels rising from about 0.1 to 0.3 meters by the year 2050, and from about 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100. For MENA, the social, economic, and ecological impacts are expected to be relatively higher compared to the rest of the world. Low-lying coastal areas in Tunisia, Qatar, Libya, UAE, Kuwait, and particularly Egypt are at particular risk.
News from Cop15
Global warming to have heavy impact on Arab states
The effects include depletion of agricultural land, spread of disease and endangerment of many plant and animal species, the 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development forecasts.
Global warming will have a severe impact on Arab states where water is already scarce, a regional report warned Thursday ahead of next month's Copenhagen environment summit.
Some of the most feared effects include depletion of agricultural land, spread of disease and endangerment of many plant and animal species, the 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development said.
The AFED report, released in Beirut, said sea level rise will mostly threaten Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Tunisia, affecting "one to three percent of land in these countries."
In Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, more than 12 percent of the country's best agricultural land in the Nile Delta is at risk from sea level rise, or SLR.
AFED Report Presented in Abu Dhabi
The report, compiled by independent experts, estimated that in the Arab region as a whole, the cost of environmental degradation is estimated at 5 % of gross domestic product (GDP). The report also highlights that the governments of the region have failed in addressing these mounting economic costs with clear and effective policies.
However, the report commended the environmental work carried out in Abu Dhabi, describing the Abu Dhabi Emirate Environment Strategy 2009-2013, adopted by the Emirate, as a "model" and called on Arab countries to follow this model and praised the clean energy initiative ‘Masdar,' which was launched by Abu Dhabi Government.
More about AFED:
The Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED)
The Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) is a not-for-profit regional non-governmental organization, grouping experts together with the civil society, business community and media, to promote prudent environmental policies and programmes across the Arab region. While it maintains its character as a non-governmental organization, AFED admits, in the capacity of observers, national, regional and international bodies working in the fields of environment and sustainable development.
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