Looming Oil Crunch

A couple of things caught my attention. First, peak oil is mentioned very casually. Even Richard Branson has apparently made a statement about how he believes that the peak is in the next five years. I have been paying attention to peak oil discussion for the past several years. The peak oil group has been fighting this battle for attention for many years now. I dont know at what point the idea of peak oil went from being a fringe notion to a mainstream idea. Second, Ambrose and other economists seem to forecast a high oil price-driven economic crisis. Jeff Rubin, former chief economist, CIBC World Markets believes that the high oil price of 2007 triggered the current economic crisis. He points to declines in the export economies of Germany and China that occurred before the subprime crisis hit. In the next iteration, we will know which other non-CDO financial instrument emperors have no clothes.

Aside, I am a fan of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. His logic is consistent, and his articles reflect an attention to details. I always learn something new in each of his columns.

Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch

For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (£64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

...
Supply is scarce. Sir Richard Branson warned this month that the world faces 'peak oil' within five years. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did," he said.

UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

I see this as a good sign of rubber hitting the road. It can help with reducing uncertainty and helping other countries draft similar plans.

I had an opportunity to listen (via podcast) to Ed Miliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change at LSE. He talks about this transition plan, his vision, and politics. Way to go.

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan plots how the UK will meet the 34 percent cut in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020, set out in the budget. We have already reduced emissions by 21 percent – equivalent to cutting emissions entirely from four cities the size of London.

Transforming the country into a cleaner, greener and more prosperous place to live is at the heart of our economic plans for 'building Britain’s future' and ensuring the UK is ready to take advantage of the opportunities ahead.

By 2020:
* More than 1.2 million people will be in green jobs.
* 7 million homes will have benefited from whole house makeovers, and more than 1.5 million households will be supported to produce their own clean energy.
* Around 40 percent of electricity will be from low-carbon sources, from renewables, nuclear and clean coal.
* We will be importing half the amount of gas that we otherwise would.
* The average new car will emit 40 percent less carbon than now.

What sound should EVs make?

I see this "mundane" issue as an indication of EV market is in scaling up mode. As nobel laureate Philip Anderson said, "quantity changes quality". As the number of EVs increases many such hidden problems will be revealed and solved.

Now that we have an opportunity to control the sounds, what could we do differently? What all information could you convey to pedestrians through sounds? I can think of a few - size of vehicle, speed, hazardous material load, emergency or not, ownership status (stolen or not), zones etc. The challenge is to simplify it to such an extent that there is only a small amount of information that the common person needs to remember. Or may be these noises will be conveyed to some hand held device that the common person can carry or is widely available that simply suggests an action based on some internal logic - start, stop, move away etc. The good thing about such a device is that the sounds can be in a spectrum that we dont hear and we dont need to.


Now you can hear electric cars coming

HALOsonic technology makes electric vehicles sound more like spaceships or sports cars - which should make roads safer for people with visual impairments

As electric vehicles (EVs) become part of our lives – both Nissan and Mitsubishi will have models on sale here within the next year, and charging points are being installed by local authorities around the country – one safety issue is becoming urgent. Unlike, say, an electric milk float, EVs are astonishingly silent, with just the wheel rumble and an occasional electric whine to alert you to their approach. The Royal National Institute of Blind People has been raising awareness of the risk; legislation is likely to follow soon.

All this is wonderful news for Lotus Engineering, which has been working for two years on a system to mimic engine noises. With the help of Harman International – which specialises in car sound systems – it came up with an electronic device that is wired into the engine and follows the revs to produce a synthetic engine noise.

So how does it sound? In the end Harman synthesised a number of alternatives, including a Prius in petrol-powered mode, the purring of an Aston Martin's supercharged V8, the tiger's roar of a Ferrari V12 engine, and the four-cylinder boxer engine you might find in an Alfa Romeo. And just for good measure, they added two spaceship sounds: rising and gently descending.

Peakoil Contingency Planning Talk Goes Mainstream

This is a small group but pretty influential - Virgin and Yahoo in UK. But the fact that they have publicly asked for a contingency plan is interesting. They mention 2013 as the year of the peak. There is an interesting alignment between Climate and Energy. Both require going green in a big way and fast!

Energy security body calls for 'urgent' review of impact of oil shortages

Virgin, Stagecoach and Yahoo among firms calling for measures to address economic dislocation from a sudden rise in oil prices....
An industry organisation that includes Virgin and Yahoo has called on the government to "urgently" reassess its dismissive view about the potential threat and impact of oil shortages.

The call from the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security comes after revelations in the Guardian that there is dissent inside the International Energy Agency (IEA) about how soon the world may run out of supplies.

It also comes alongside a petition to Number 10 which calls on Gordon Brown to take up the issue more seriously amid a growing number of reports that indicate the situation is more urgent than many believed.

The Wicks Review into energy issues, published in August on behalf of the Department of Energy and Climate Change, gave scant regard to peak oil issues.

Will Whitehorn, the taskforce chairman, who is also president of Virgin Galactic, Sir Richard Branson's space travel business, said: "Given the revelations from within the IEA, we hope the government will be urgently reviewing the complacent approach to peak-oil risk evident in the Wicks Review."

Other members of the taskforce include Scottish and Southern Energy, Stagecoach, the transport group, and Arup, the civil engineering consultancy. Work already undertaken by the taskforce has suggests that more needs to be done to prepare for the potential economic dislocation from a sudden huge rise in crude prices.

The report of this group is called The Oil Crunch. More about the group:

The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) is a group of British companies concerned that threats to energy security are not receiving the attention they merit.

The Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

The aim of our first report is to engage government more proactively on the peak oil threat, and also to alert the public to the problem. We aim to encourage collaborative contingency planning by government, industry, and communities on measures that can be taken to accelerate independent energy supply within the UK.

In preparing this report, we asked ourselves three related questions: How big is the risk from peak oil? How big is the alternative-energy opportunity? How do the two conflate?