EV, national security and Shai Agassi

In a previous blog post (Electrification Coalition: Adding momentum to EV deployment), I wondered about the emphasis on national security.

I went back and listened to Shai Agassi of Better Place from Nov 2008. He said a few things that were striking from a national security point of view.

First, that for a nation of the size of US, the idea that you have only a few days worth of oil storage is a national security issue - whether the world is a stable or not. There was never a serious way to address that risk, and EVs now make it possible at think about addressing the problem. This is validated by the fact that Israel - one of the countries with the greatest interest in oil - is the first country to go EV in a big way.

Second, the oil companies' business is about to change. I was aware of it but he said it in a way it brought home the point. Shai was asked about how oil companies would respond to electricification. He asked what would the CEO of Exxon say in 2017 to its share holders? They cant possibly say 'it was a good ride, thank you!'. They have dwindling reserves, and new reserves are harder and more expensive to get to. Shai reminded that oil companies are in energy business - they are selling fuel-miles. Oil companies could have life beyond oil too.

Third, when asked about how detroit companies would respond. He smiled and said they get the idea that they have to change. He pointed out that Detroit successfully retooled themselves in early 40s. When the companies pushed back, FDR simply said 'fall in line' and forced them to comply. For almost 3 years during the 40s, Detroit didnt make any cars at all. So from a jobs point of view, it can be done. It is painful and the signal must be clear (my paraphrasing). Elsewhere at Copenhagen Business Council's meeting, he said that by 2020, the largest car manufacturer might very well be Chinese and not American or German. There is the issue of loss of competitiveness in an international market.

He argued that approaches such as rideshare is really in the taxi business and not in the personal car business. He wants new business models in the car industry where you get a car for free (like razor) and sell battery-based fuel-miles for a price (like blades). Anybody can provide the fuel miles - whether it is exxon or wind power. He talked about about how he is happy to consume energy at a higher price 10c/KWH and higher uncertainty provided by Wind energy (compared 5c/KWH of coal) because the value created elsewhere is higher.

Overall highly recommended.

Electrification Coalition: Adding momentum to EV deployment

A new lobby group has formed with some heavyweights to push for the EV deployment.

The Electrification Coalition

The Electrification Coalition is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit group of business leaders committed to promoting policies and actions that facilitate the deployment of electric vehicles on a mass scale in order to combat the economic, environmental, and national security dangers caused by our nation’s dependence on petroleum.

The Coalition seeks to achieve its goals through a combination of public policy research and the education of policymakers, opinion leaders, and the public. Equipped with exceptional research and analysis, these prominent business executives bring credibility, insight, and objectivity to the debate over electrification.

Look at members of this group:

Timothy E. Conver,AeroVironment, Inc. - Manufacturer (EV/UAVs)
Peter L. Corsell, GridPoint, Inc. - Smartgrid software vendor
David W. Crane, NRG Energy, Inc. - Enginnering/operations
Kevin Czinger, Coda Automotive - EV manufacturer
Peter A. Darbee, PG&E Corporation - Utility
Seifi Ghasemi, Rockwood Holdings, Inc. - Manufacturing, materials
Carlos Ghosn, Nissan Motor Company, Ltd. - EV manufacturer
Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers - VC
Richard Lowenthal, Coulomb Technologies, Inc. - EV charging
Alex A. Molinaroli, Johnson Controls- Equipment manufacturer
Reuben Munger, Bright Automotive, Inc. - Vehicle design
Frederick W. Smith, FedEx Corporation - Logistics
David Vieau, A123 Systems, Inc. - Battery manufacturer


They have an electrification roadmap, if you wish to look at.

The Electrification Roadmap is a comprehensive report that outlines a vision for a fully integrated electric drive network in the united states. The report examines the challenges facing electrification, including battery technology and cost, infrastructure financing, regulatory requirements, electric power sector interface, and consumer acceptance issues. The Roadmap provides policymakers and business leaders with a framework for overcoming these challenges in order to drive meaningful reductions in u.s. oil dependence.

A few observations . First, people are taking the fight to the political level/public discourse now. The potential winners (GE/transportation/software etc.) are bracing for a show of force with potential losers (coal, oil etc.). Second, the coalition is still small. Only some are heavyweights - FedEx, PG&E, Nissan, and Johnson controls. Third, they are playing up, possibly for strategic reasons, the national security angle. They are likely being advised by the best of the messaging talent that exists out there. This strikes me a way to split the subset of lawmakers who are both market and security hawks.

The march to low carbon economy continues....

Nissan Leaf Roadshow or The Age of Electric Drive has Begun

I spent a couple of hours at the first roadshow of Nissan Leaf in Santa Monica. See the pictures below. A few thoughts:

First impression - very positive. It had a very elegant design, sober coloring, had wide enough body for comfortable seating. I couldnt see the inside of the hood or the boot. It didnt seem to have too much space in the back.

Quite a few people showed up. Almost 800 people RSVP'd to attend. Many others like me didnt RSVP but attended. People were of all backgrounds, old and young. There werent too many women but a few starting trickling in by the time I left.

This is set for release in Dec 2010. The first version will have 1000 cars. I signed up to testride end of next year when they release the car.

I had a little bit of fun. I interviewed a couple of regular folks on their attitudes towards this car. Environment as an issue is being discussed in the family, school and workplace. I also spoke to EV enthusiasts as well.

I gave a quick interview (!) to Nissan people on camera about why Leaf was the greatest thing since sliced bread and urged everyone to go electric.

Enjoy the slideshow!