Decarbonized World

Oil & Water

2010-03-16T10:46:00.000-07:00

This talk surprised me in the sense that Matt Simmons used to be very focused on energy. He comes from the oil investment world. He has now expanded the discussion to include other resources - mostly water. He sees ocean energy as the way forward. I often find Matt Simmons to be ahead of curve - not that he needs my endorsement.

I am seeing more references everday to the interplay between energy and water. Jeremy Rifkin mentioned in a recent talk that during the heatwave in Europe that killed 10K people, one of the reasons France's nuclear power plants could not generate more energy to drive the air conditioners and mitigate the problem is that the power plants were constrained by their water availability. Here Matt Simmons suggests that USA's power generation uses 40% of the fresh water. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, in a talk claimed that 20% of the energy generated in the state of California is used for pumping water around.

Twin Threats to Resource Scarcity: Oil & Water Marsh’s National Oil Companies’ Conference 2010, February 24, 2010

Simmons marsh-talk

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Vacation

2010-03-14T16:57:00.000-07:00

I will be away for a month (traveling abroad) but will be back to continue chronicling the journey.

Some observations so far:

1. I am seeing greater amount of involvement every single day from the financial industry (pension funds, insurance, banks, exchanges). I blogged extensively about this. I believe that they already changing the dynamics.

2. The progress on the technology front is a lot more diffused and unclear. In particular, I am beginning to have doubts about EVs primarily due to extremely limited availability of cruicial raw materials (Li). You cant build a trillion dollar industry around rare earths metals.

3. A big chunk of the low carbon economy will be regulation driven (cap-n-trade, EU ETS etc). Looks like the financial crisis has postponed cap-n-trade bill in the US by a year or two but local initiatives at state and city-level are proceeding at full steam.

4. The news on the climate change gets worse by the day. Even sticking to 450PPM of CO2 may not be enough to prevent 3+ centigrade rise in global temperature. We may be looking at a violent 21st century.

Ceres Roadmap for The 21st Century Corporation

2010-03-14T16:37:00.000-07:00

CERES ups the ante with a new report detailing the roles and responsibilities of corporate stake holders in the low carbon economy. Given the backers of CERES including major institutional investors such as CalPERS, I would expect this document to have some impact.

A couple of words from the very first line caught my eye - 'win' and 'resource-constrained'. These words are meaningful to investors and management. They indicate what the risk (of being left behind, hit by consequences) and opportunity (what is source of new value) are about.

Reuters has an article (Time for next stage of sustainable business) talking about the ceres report.

The 21st Century Corporation: The Ceres Roadmap for Sustainability

Companies must make immediate and meaningful social and environmental improvements if they are to win in the resource-constrained 21st century.

That’s the message of a new Ceres report outlining the urgency, vision and competitive advantages for companies that fully embrace sustainability in their business as energy prices rise, water supplies are increasingly contested and the world’s population grows.

"Sustainability performance is fundamental for business success in the 21st century,” said Mindy S. Lubber, president of the investor coalition Ceres, which published the report, The 21st Century Corporation: The Ceres Roadmap for Sustainability. “If businesses deepen their efforts to solve social and environmental threats, it will position them to innovate and compete in the fast-changing, resource-constrained global economy. It is no longer enough for companies to have special projects or initiatives. Comprehensive sustainability strategies are expected.”
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Anne Stausboll, chief executive officer of the California Public Employees Retirement System, voiced strong support for the report's key findings.

"We expect our portfolio companies to do what is necessary to position themselves for a sustainable economy," said Stausboll, whose office oversees more than $200 billion in assets. "Environmental and social issues are core to business performance in the 21st century. We are looking for companies that are managing these risks and developing opportunities.

China and India Join Copenhagen Accord

2010-03-10T11:05:00.000-08:00

This is a step in the right direction.

Climate Goal Is Supported by China and India

China and India join more than 100 countries that have signed up under the accord, which calls for limiting the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, beyond pre-industrial levels.

The agreement also calls for spending as much as $100 billion a year to help emerging countries adapt to climate change and develop low-carbon energy systems, to bring energy technology more quickly to the developing world and to take steps to protect tropical forests from destruction. ...
China has said it will try to voluntarily reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide per unit of economic growth — a measure known as “carbon intensity” — by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels. India set a domestic emissions intensity reduction target of 20 to 25 percent by 2020, compared with 2005 levels, excluding its agricultural sector.

Carbon Caps Through the Backdoor

2010-03-05T17:08:00.000-08:00

WSJ discusses the role of NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners) - insurance regulators from 50 states - in development and enforcement of climate change-related disclosure norms. It is somewhat ideological in its take. The states have legitimate interest in climate change impacts and its cost (often paid through insurance companies). It is not very different from actions by any number of interest groups - many of them much more odious than this.

Carbon Caps Through the Backdoor

Since the beginning of the climate debate, environmental lobbies such as Ceres (a coalition of activists and investors that pressures companies to go green) have expressed particular interest in insurers. Rather than nitpick every company to adopt climate-change policies, these organizations realized it would be more efficient to target a gatekeeper. Everybody needs insurance. If insurers could be bludgeoned into requiring policyholders adopt carbon-mitigation practices as a requirement for insurance, the activists would have imposed their will widely and quickly.

Links for March 4, 2010

2010-03-04T17:16:00.000-08:00

Why the “Petro Metro” wants electric cars

“Houston’s not a natural market for electric cars,” Crane admitted, when we met the other day. “But electric cars are good for our business in all kinds of ways,” he added. So NRG and Reliant is working with officials Houston, America’s 4th largest city, to persuade Nissan to make Houston one of the leading launch markets for the Nissan Leaf, the all electric vehicle that the Japanese automaker plans to start selling later this year.

“We are the Petro Metro, but we are also a car city,” said Houston’s newly-elected mayor, Annise Parker, at an event earlier this month to welcome Nissan to the city. Certainly there’s a sizable market awaiting Nissan in the city. Houston is home to 4.5 million vehicles that travel 86 million miles a day, according to Reuters.

Corporate Fleets Expected Early Adopters of Electric Vehicles

U.S. corporate fleets purchase about 300,000 vehicles a year, and they are expected to be among the steadiest customers of electric vehicles, including cargo vans, as they come to market.

Commercial trucks account for about 12 percent of miles driven but produce about 25 percent of all emissions, Scott Harrison, CEO of Azure Dynamics told the New York Times.

How Climate will Change Transportation: Part 2

What I thought was more interesting were her findings on climate change and its effects on DOTs. The Three-Part Challenge to State DOTs

1. Reduce transportation GHG’s: by as much as 60-80% by 2050
2. Adapt transportation infrastructure: most importantly to severe storms, but also rising sea levels, high temperatures and flooding
3. Find a new revenue stream: one based on low carbon fuels

In the US highway vehicles = 82% of Transportation CO2 emissions, 23% of total US CO2 emission

Carbon traders foresee lacklustre market in 2010

Panellists speaking at the Point Carbon conference in Amsterdam this week believe the floor for CERs will be around the €8 level, which is generally regarded as cheap. Currently the December 2010 EUA contract is around €13 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (/t CO2e) and the same contract for CERs is around €11/t CO2e in the over-the-counter market, according to Point Carbon.

Shareholders target climate laggards in proxy season

A record 95 shareholder resolutions related to climate change were filed with 82 US and Canadian companies, representing a 40% increase from the 2009 proxy season, according to Boston-based Ceres, a coalition of investors and environmental groups.

The effort is expected to intensify now that the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued guidance clarifying what publicly traded companies need to disclose about the material effects that climate change has on their business.

EU LP Group Asks PE To “Step Up Its Attitude To Climate Change”

In the guidelines, Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC), an organization whose more than 50 members manage some EUR4 trillion ($5.4 trillion) in assets, outline specific questions limited partners and general partners can ask to assess the potential impact of climate change on their portfolios.

Investments in World Bank Green Bonds Surpass USD 1 billion

“Investing in the World Bank's top-rated green bonds is a great way to promote smart and clean economic development in our planet's emerging economies while delivering dependable returns for the New York State Common Retirement Fund and its more than one million members. Investing in these bonds helps New York join the effort to curb harmful climate change while delivering bottom-line returns,” commented Thomas P. DiNapoli, New York State Comptroller, an investor in USD-denominated World Bank Green Bonds.

Hopes for USD 2 trillion global carbon market fade

The absence of legally binding global climate deal and a federal emissions trading scheme in the United States are standing in the way of the market in global emissions trading growing to achieve yearly turnover of USD 2 trillion by 2020.

"There will only be a USD 2 trillion market if the US gets on board," Trevor Sikorski, head of carbon research at Barclays Capital, told Reuters at a carbon conference in Amsterdam.

U.S. Postal Service to test a repurposed electric vehicle fleet

Starting this summer, the Postal Service, which operates the world's largest civilian vehicle fleet, will begin a year-long pilot program of electric mail trucks in the Washington area, using vehicles converted by five manufacturers.

"We have been integral to transportation since Day One," said Postal Service spokeswoman Sue Brennan, "so we consider this a role for us."

The experiment is the first field-testing of electric-powered long-life vehicles, a staple of postal delivery for decades. There are 142,000 delivery trucks still on the road. The small mail trucks are on their way to delivering their last packages -- most are between 20 and 25 years old. Last year, the Postal Service announced it would extend the lifespan of the vehicles to 30 years, buying the agency more time to make a decision about the future of its fleet while it wrestles with how to pay for replacements.

World's cheapest EV: Tata Nano electrifies Geneva show

The world's cheapest car, transformed into the world's cheapest electric car, went on display at the Geneva Motor Show.

India's Tata Nano EV seats four, has a predicted range of about 80 miles and will go from zero to about 35 miles per hour in a blistering 10 seconds. The car has super-polymer lithium-ion batteries, which Tata says provide superior energy retention.

Changing Attitudes towards EVs

2010-02-26T09:53:00.000-08:00

The desire for EVs is growing. Will the system deliver (cars, charging stations, finance etc.)?
A huge unknown is the price of gas at the pump. The price is too low (3$+) right now. There could be a blowback if the savings are not appropriate for the price and convenience premium that is paid.

Are US drivers beginning to get switched on to electric cars?

# Roughly 10% of the survey participants said they would consider a plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle purchase.
# 34% of survey participants said they would subsidize local charging stations.
# Public awareness of emerging powertrain technologies remains weak across the US.
# Not many consumers are willing to embrace the new technology prior to it being well-established in the market.
# No other plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle incentive or benefit is considered nearly as important as saving money on fuel.
# Among several considerations, access to charging stations, battery driving range and vehicle cost are by far the three most significant consumer concerns.

A skeptical take from LA Times:

Do consumers want alternative fuel vehicles? Maybe not, new study says

"If government and manufacturers go down the path they’re on now, we’re not going to get alternative-fuel vehicles into the marketplace for quite some time," said Rosanna Garcia, an associate professor of marketing at Northeastern University who surveyed more than 7,500 car enthusiasts to gauge their interest in hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and diesel cars.

Garcia cited a lack of cost effectiveness, uncertainty about fuel availability, uncertainty about the cost of the vehicle and replacement parts and a lack of understanding about how the technologies work as obstacles to greater adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles, which currently account for less than 4% of registered vehicles in the U.S.
...
The main barriers to entry? For electric vehicles, it was price, coupled with insufficient range. Garcia’s study found that consumers were willing to pay as much as $70,000 for an EV, but they wanted a minimum of 110 miles per charge.

For consumers considering a gas-electric hybrid, fuel efficiency was most important. Cost was secondary. For such a hybrid, consumers were, on average, only willing to pay up to $30,000, as long as they got about 40 miles per gallon.

IETA Fall 2009 Symposium

2010-02-24T16:26:00.000-08:00

International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) is a decade-old trade organization in the carbon trading space. You may find their limited access IETA Fall 2009 Symposium proceedings useful. Their final report has a defensive tone in part as a response to recent attacks on their system (price crash, cyberattacks etc.).

Whats IETA?

The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) is a nonprofit business organization created in June 1999 to establish a functional international framework for trading in greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Our membership includes leading international companies from across the carbon trading cycle. IETA members seek to develop an emissions trading regime that results in real and verifiable greenhouse gas emission reductions, while balancing economic efficiency with environmental integrity and social equity.

As of March 2009, IETA comprises more than 160 international companies from OECD and non-OECD countries. IETA has formed several partnerships such as with, among others, the World Bank, Eurelectric, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and the California Climate Action Registry.

Carbon War Room

2010-02-24T16:12:00.000-08:00

Yet another initiative coming from Richard Branson et al. Interesting and amusing metaphor. The website has a military site look and feel. They have initiatives like this one on energy efficiency of buildings. I see a bunch of sponsors, links to other organizations and photos but nothing jumps out as an original initiative. I will comb through the site some more.

Carbon War Room

The Carbon War Room harnesses the power of entrepreneurs to implement market-driven solutions to climate change. The world needs entrepreneurial leadership to create a post-carbon economy.

The War Room’s unique approach focuses on bringing together successful entrepreneurs, business leaders, policy experts, researchers, and thought leaders to focus on market-driven solutions.

Our approach is to identify the barriers that are preventing market-based scale up of climate change solutions and thereby perpetuating the status quo. In addition to technology and policy gaps, these barriers include principal-agent problems, information gaps, and lack of common standards or metrics.

The War Room operates across 25 battles in 7 theaters and has three core functions:

* The Research & Intelligence team compiles a reliable, independent source of global research on the current carbon-industrial complex and leading market-driven innovations.
* The Communications team convenes successful entrepreneurs, experts, and leaders to ensure solutions are strategically sound, fast acting, and well presented.
* The Operations team plans the path to victory in each area using appropriate tools and partners to achieve the overwhelming force necessary. After determining partners, budgets, and leaders to execute the battle; funding is raised and milestones created; then the operation is closely monitored as each operation proceeds.

Emerging Business Model for Algae

2010-02-23T18:14:00.000-08:00

Interesting. Algae can be used to reduce pollution-related costs in addition to providing energy. Given the multi-dimensional value, algae-driven energy doesnt have to be competitive w.r.t. energy sources alone but rather with a combination of existing inputs and costs (compliance, waste/pollution management, legal, and energy).

Co-location could make algae biofuels affordable

The answer? Turn the waste from other industries into a resource for this new one, helping to solve the waste problem at the same time. With or without realizing it, various scientists speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual conference, which wraps up here today, were promoting the notion that algae operations should be located next to industries that can supply one or more of the nutrient streams.

For example, algae production facilities could be located next to coal-fired power plants, which happen to be under increasing pressure and regulation to reduce CO2 emissions. Instead of spending money to sequester that carbon, say, underground, why not sell it, cheap, to an adjacent algae facility? Indeed, the Seambiotic algae plant in Tel Aviv, Israel, is tapping the flue gas of a coal plant next door.

Similarly, algae producers could locate near municipal wastewater treatment plants. "Cleansed" water that is usually deposited in rivers or other water bodies is generally safe for the environment, but still usually contains too much nitrogen or phosphorus for human consumption. Algae, however, thrive on those very compounds, and the alternative of purchasing them as fertilizer leaves a large environment footprint. Of course, the water itself is needed for algae production. A pilot plant run by Sunrise Ridge Algae in Austin, Tex., is piping in this resource from the Hornsby Bend wastewater plant there. Sunrise was hoping that enough CO2 could also be extracted from the wastewater, but the flow coming from Hornsby's anaerobic digesters was inconsistent, not a big surprise since the system was not built to supply CO2, per se.

Public Scrutiny of Fracking

2010-02-23T16:50:00.000-08:00

Fracking or hydraulic fracturing is used to extract gas from rock formations (e.g., shale gas). The problem is that you have to pump toxic chemicals such as benzene into the ground, and you cant really prevent them from polluting into the ground water. The number of wells is large (15000) and are spread out over large geographic area. The potential social cost is huge. The 2005 energy act exempted the gas companies from disclosing any of the details of chemicals and/or be regulated by EPA. But there is real impact on the ground (captured in the documentary Gas Land; see the youtube videos below). Looks like a social movement is developing as a reaction to the negative impact of fracking. Congress has launched an investigation in this. This has natural gas industry worried.

Links for Feb 23, 2010

2010-02-23T16:18:00.000-08:00

Fate and viability of carbon markets does not lie in UK hands alone - PwC

PwC comment on Environmental Audit Committee Report on Carbon Markets

* Uncertainty over EU and international targets impacting market confidence
* Traders and market theorists will argue against price floors
* Reserve prices would be needed across Europe, not just UK
* London markets and skills are dominant in £75bn EU and Global emissions trading

A new look at carbon offsets - McKinsey Quarterly

Carbon markets will continue to play a role in pricing—and limiting—emissions, but the opportunity in developing markets may be less promising than once expected.

The article identifies the combination of reasons that sound like people are still figuring out the parameters of the market

Two factors hamper price equalization among the offset market, domestic carbon markets, and the global market as envisioned by the assigned amount units (AAU) established in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change.

* On the one hand, countries have limited the amount of offsets that can be imported into domestic carbon markets. For instance, the European Union will allow only 1.6 metric gigatons2 (GT) of offset credits to be imported into its market from 2008 to 2020, or on average 0.1–0.2 GT per annum. As this quota will probably be exhausted by 2015, prices on the European carbon market might start to deviate from offset market prices.
* On the other hand, the demand for offsets from Annex I countries is less certain, as the global market is oversupplied with “hot air,”3 which limits the need to buy offset credits. Therefore, national demand for offset credits is typically seen as “soft.”

Time to clean up: UN study reveals environmental cost of world trade - The Guardian

Political pressure is mounting to make businesses pay for the damage they cause to the environment, and the latest UN study assessing the impact of the world's biggest companies is almost certainly the first stage in a concerted campaign to calculate how much damage is caused, what it is worth and ultimately how it can be stopped.

Another report due later this year, The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, led by the economist and UN special adviser Pavan Sukhdev, will be another significant step towards this goal.

Sukhdev has already warned that damage to the environment will cause the global economy to decline by 7% by the middle of the century if it is not stopped.
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By far the most "damaging" were the utilities, where the $400bn total "cost" was dominated by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, nuclear waste, acid rain and smog precursors, and metal pollution in water.

The four sectors with the lowest impact – telecommunications, healthcare, technology and financial services – all caused environmental damage totalling less than $25bn each.

After the utilities, the two sectors with the biggest impacts were "basic materials" such as mining, forestry and chemical companies, with costs put at just over $300bn, and consumer goods such as cars, food, drink and toys, at just under $300bn. The breakdown of their activities is very different however.
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Look for the report that Mercer is going to deliver in Oct 2010.

Excluding climate change breaches fiduciary care - Natixis

The integration of climate change into portfolio management remains a difficult task but not doing so is a failure of fiduciary care by asset managers, an institutional investor has claimed.

Carlos Joly, chairman of the Climate Change Scientific Committee of Natixis Asset Management, told IPE the integration of climate change into portfolio management is still in its early stages.

“One way is to take the narrow thematic approach such as investing in alternative energy funds,” he said. “However, that is unsatisfactory for us because it does not address the breadth of climate change impacts throughout the economy. It is also a niche approach, which all investors tend to enter and exit at the same time. Carbon footprinting on an index is a step forward from the thematic approach, but ultimately does not reflect the solutions to the problems,” argued Joly.
...
global consultancy Mercer has launched a research project to assess the implications of climate change on strategic asset allocation decisions made last October.

The two-part report– expected to be published in October this year – will consist of a public report in which the broad findings will be shared with the industry, as well as a tailored report for each asset owner that commits to the project, and they in turn will be benchmarked against other project partners.

The study will produce a qualitative framework to outline risks and opportunities by region and asset class, as well as considering the sector effects, which can then be used as an overlay to strategic asset allocation decisions.

Global Investments in Clean Energy Fell Less than Expected in 2009

Climate change: Agri experts paint grim future

India is confronted by a confluence of crises,” he explained. “Increasing energy demand, drought, deforestation, skyrocketing food prices and a population explosion threaten the very fabric of Indian society.” The dry tropics are home to over two billion people, 675 million of which comprise the poorest of the poor. According to Dar, the importance of rain-fed agriculture cannot be overstated. Rain-fed areas contribute over 40 per cent of all food grains and a majority of pulses and vegetables. Dar also accused the Indian government of showing “bias in grain price support and research subsides.” He claimed that “rain-fed agriculture is struggling against policies biased towards more favoured, generally irrigated land”.

Google gets go-ahead to buy, sell energy

Google has expressed a desire for access to larger amounts of renewable energy to help produce the electricity it consumes as part of its vast search-engine empire. Google has long maintained that its goal is to become a carbon-neutral company. As a side note, it's not unusual for large companies to be granted the authority to trade in the wholesale electricity market for the purpose of managing their own energy costs.

As recently as January--after Google Energy made its request to FERC--the company maintained that its expressed immediate wish was for more control over electricity pricing to more effectively gain access to affordable renewable energy.

"Right now, we can't buy affordable, utility-scale, renewable energy in our markets. We want to buy the highest quality, most affordable renewable energy wherever we can and use the green credits," Google representative Niki Fenwick told CNET News at the time.

But it seems that Google may actually enter the energy business. The search giant formed the Delaware-based subsidiary called Google Energy in December and when asked about it, hinted at a future in energy.

"We don't have any concrete plans. We want the ability to buy and sell electricity in case it becomes part of our portfolio," Fenwick told CNET News in January.

Looming Oil Crunch

2010-02-20T23:06:00.000-08:00

A couple of things caught my attention. First, peak oil is mentioned very casually. Even Richard Branson has apparently made a statement about how he believes that the peak is in the next five years. I have been paying attention to peak oil discussion for the past several years. The peak oil group has been fighting this battle for attention for many years now. I dont know at what point the idea of peak oil went from being a fringe notion to a mainstream idea. Second, Ambrose and other economists seem to forecast a high oil price-driven economic crisis. Jeff Rubin, former chief economist, CIBC World Markets believes that the high oil price of 2007 triggered the current economic crisis. He points to declines in the export economies of Germany and China that occurred before the subprime crisis hit. In the next iteration, we will know which other non-CDO financial instrument emperors have no clothes.

Aside, I am a fan of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. His logic is consistent, and his articles reflect an attention to details. I always learn something new in each of his columns.

Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch

For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (£64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

...
Supply is scarce. Sir Richard Branson warned this month that the world faces 'peak oil' within five years. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did," he said.

CDP Backing Continues to Grow

2010-02-17T14:55:00.000-08:00

Climate Risk Disclosure is starting to look inevitable with this level of SEC and institutional backing.

Record number of investors support CDP’s 2010 request for climate change information

The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) today announced its eighth annual request for information on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change strategies to over 4,500 companies globally. Companies this year will report to CDP through an upgraded system, developed with Accenture, Microsoft and SAP, that will for the first time utilize the full power of online analysis tools to drive improved carbon management.

A global, independent, not-for-profit organization, CDP is the world’s largest institutional investor collaboration working to inform the global market place on investment risk and commercial opportunity. The number of institutional investors that signed CDP’s annual request for climate change information this year has risen from 475 in 2009, to a record 534 with a combined US$64 trillion of assets under management. New signatory investors include Wells Fargo, BNY Mellon, Generali and the Industrial Bank of Korea.

CDP continues to act on investor interest in emerging markets with requests for information going to companies in the S&P/IFCI Carbon Efficient Index. This year CDP is, for the first time, writing to companies in Turkey, Peru, Morocco, Egypt and Israel as well as continuing to expand its coverage in areas such as Asia, Poland, Chile and Mexico.

CDP gives companies the tools they need to identify and report material risk and opportunity to their business from climate change. This is an increasingly important skill for US corporations to master, following the recent publication of climate change risk disclosure guidance by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Coalition Shakeups

2010-02-17T13:28:00.000-08:00

This may be a hint that cap-n-trade is not going to be tabled this year. But there could be some organizational issues as well.

WSJ: Defections Shake Up Climate Coalition

Three big companies quit an influential lobbying group that had focused on shaping climate-change legislation, in the latest sign that support for an ambitious bill is melting away.

Oil giants BP PLC and ConocoPhillips and heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. said Tuesday they won't renew their membership in the three-year-old U.S. Climate Action Partnership, a broad business-environmental coalition that had been instrumental in building support in Washington for capping emissions of greenhouse gases.

The move comes as debate over climate change intensifies and concerns mount about the cost of capping greenhouse-gas emissions.
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ConocoPhillips's senior vice president for government affairs, Red Cavaney, said the USCAP was focused on getting a climate-change bill passed, whereas Conoco is increasingly concerned with what the details of such a bill would be.

"USCAP was starting to do more and more on trying to get a bill out without trying to work as much on the substance of it," Mr. Cavaney said.
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As long as climate legislation appeared imminent, companies were willing to paper over their differences and continue to work together. But by late last year, momentum had stalled in the Senate as Washington turned its attention to health care, the economy and the midterm elections. Few experts expect a bill to pass this year.

Catholic Green Initiative

2010-02-16T14:52:00.000-08:00

This came through my Google Alerts. There are many reasons to go green including those based on religion. One of the first investors in Chicago Climate Exchange was a church. I wrote earlier about Islam's Green Initiative. Turns out that Vatican was going green as well. I wish it was publicized more.

Perpetual Energy Systems and the Diocese of San Jose Activate Six Solar Energy Installations

erpetual Energy Systems (PES), a national power purchase agreement (PPA) provider/financier of solar powered renewable energy systems, and the Diocese of San Jose (Diocese), in conjunction with MBL-Energy (MBL) and Photon Energy Services (Photon), today announce the activation of six distributed solar energy installations, consisting of an aggregate nameplate capacity of 886 kW DC. The systems are projected to generate an estimated 1.4 million kilowatt hours of clean energy in its first full year of operation, representing 70 percent of each site’s individual energy needs.

The systems are hosted by the Diocese on five parish/school combinations, including Holy Spirit, Holy Family, Saint Christopher, Queen of Apostles, Saint Lucy as well as Gate of Heaven Cemetery. As part of the Catholic Green Initiative of Santa Clara County, the Diocese entered into a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with PES to host the solar installations requiring no capital outlay from the Diocese or its parishes. Under the PPA, the Diocese will purchase clean solar energy produced by each installation at a predetermined, fixed rate. All operations of the system will be assumed by PES.

Catholic Green Initiative of Santa Clara County Announcement

Everywhere we turn these days, we are reminded of the need and desire to be "green." Cities, counties, states and nations are calling us to better care for our planet. Almost 15 years ago, the United States Catholic Bishops issued a statement entitled Renewing the Earth: A Invitation to Reflection and Action on Environment in Light of Catholic Social Teaching, calling all people of faith "to examine how we use and share the goods of the earth, what we pass on to future generations, and how we live in harmony with God's creation."

Catholics around the world have already initiated many innovative ecological projects that have highlighted the need for all of us to live more sustainably and to leave a lighter "ecological footprint." In response to this call to ecological stewardship, I have formed The Catholic Green Initiative of Santa Clara County under the direction of Father Brendan McGuire, Vicar General, Special Projects.

This team includes the Presentation Retreat and Conference Center, Santa Clara University, Catholic Charities of Santa Clara County, and the Diocese of San Jose. We will work collaboratively to bring all Catholics of our local Church together with a single "green" vision. This team will identify and encourage "green initiatives" here in our own Valley of Saint Clare and they will ask all Catholics of Santa Clara County to make a difference in an organized and sustainable way.

This initiative will start with a Town Hall Meeting on February 7, 2009 with our guest speaker - Mr. Dan Misleh, Executive Director of the Catholic Coalition on Climate Change. The gathering will focus on the theology of stewardship, how stewardship is central to our Christian heritage, and why it must be a Catholic concern. It will include breakout sessions discussing how we can act in environmentally-conscious ways. All attendees will be asked to commit to action determined by the collective voice of this group. This event is by invitation-only and will be limited to a maximum of 100 attendees. Formal invitations will be coming shortly via another email.

Detroit Mass Transit

2010-02-15T18:14:00.000-08:00

This is a private effort, no doubt, but I had a dizzy feeling when I read this. I just finished a book - Internal Combustion by Edwin Black - that chronicled the multi-decade effort (1930s-1970s) led by GM to undo electric mass transit across the US. They systematically bought up poorly managed mass transit systems, got rid of the trams and switched to buses, and finally got rid of the electric network. There were congressional hearings in the 1970s around the role of the standard oil, GM, and Firestone Tires, among others, in this process. This is less important as a specific project, and more important for its symbolism. It also indicates the power lost by the car companies. They cant argue against mass transit as they bet their future on smaller and electric cars.

Mass transit for Motor City

The city plans to break ground this year on stage one of a $420 million project: the first modern, mass-transit initiative in a city long synonymous with automobiles.

"Transit in Detroit has kind of been a joke," says Matt Cullen, CEO of M1 Rail, a private consortium heading the development effort. "We've been a victim of balkanized politics and other efforts. But now we have a plan in place. We'll get it done, and we feel it will have a huge impact on this region."
...
It's the only project of its kind in the U.S., and the donor list reads like a Who's Who of area megamillionaires: Compuware (CPWR) CEO Peter Karmanos, Quicken Loans founder Dan Gilbert, Penske Corporation CEO Roger Penske and Red Wings owner Mike Ilitch are among those ponying up $125 million to cover the project's entire phase-one price tag.

The planned 3.4-mile first stretch of light rail service would encompass some of Detroit's best-known entertainment districts, including Comerica Park, home of baseball's Tigers, and Ford Field, where the Lions play football. The route winds past the Fox Theater district and extends into Detroit's New Center area, the center of gravity for many local hospitals and medical facilities, as well as much of the Wayne State University campus.

Hertz's Nissan Leaf Teaser

2010-02-14T19:23:00.000-08:00

The story has no details, but still is interesting. Lesser maintenance and lower fuel costs can make the product attractive. In fact they can change the business model in three ways ways (1) Keep current business model, i.e., sell car time, but remove the fuel related charges, (2) Sell miles, (3) sell battery time - pick whatever model. If Leaf can withstand the heavy use in rental market, it will improve confidence in the EV model. It can generate a lot of operational data as well that can be used to design Leaf 2.0.

Hertz to include Nissan electric cars to fleet

Hertz will add Nissan's electric vehicle to its lineup next year in the U.S. and Europe, the rental car company said Friday.

Hertz Corp., the world's largest car rental agency, plans to use the Nissan Leaf, an all-electric vehicle with a rechargeable battery.

Green Supply Chain

2010-02-08T16:29:00.000-08:00

Take this FWIW (For What It is Worth) but I thought it is interesting.

Perceptant: FCMG Companies Face Rising Supply Chain Pressures

Major retailers are under tremendous pressure to go green and reduce their carbon footprint. To achieve this, they first turned to initiatives close at hand, including the reduction of energy consumption at the store level, product packaging resizing and the more efficient construction of new stores.

Some would argue however that their supply chains represent the biggest source of carbon reduction and as close to home initiatives begin to dry up, retailers are now turning their attentions towards suppliers.

FMCG companies for example are being placed under tighter and tighter scrutiny to deliver on-time, with full loads that aren’t rejected. This can have a major impact on sustainability, as full loads mean fewer lorries on our roads, fewer rejections equal less waste and on-time deliveries reduce bottlenecks and returns
...
Picture, if you will, a supplier faced with a mandate from a major retailer to reduce its carbon footprint by 25%. That’s not a 25% reduction in its own internal footprint but the footprint it creates in trading with the retailer. Understandably, all eyes turn to logistics and product returns as two major areas that can achieve this. But how and at what cost?

Links for Feb 8, 2010

2010-02-08T11:18:00.000-08:00

FT: Market for carbon trading is starting to look rather shaky
Simpler ways of cutting emissions, such as insulation, should be tackled by regulation. And at the other extreme, such as creating an integrated European...

FT: Property investors prepare for a green future
The built environment contributes significantly to carbon emissions; as much as 40 per cent of the total, according to the UK Institutional Investors Group ...

CFP: Disclosing the real risks of climate change
We are not weighing in on the climate debate. We are not opining on whether the world’s climate is changing, at what pace or due to what causes, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Shapiro insisted on announcing the SEC’s new “interpretive guidance” on climate change.

Ernst & Young report: Carbon market readiness

2010-02-06T14:54:00.000-08:00

This is one of the logical next steps - getting accountants involved so that they can do financial analysis and planning, among others. The report is here

New Ernst & Young LLP report examines greenhouse gas reporting practices as the SEC releases new climate change disclosure guidelines

The new report, Carbon market readiness: accounting, compliance, reporting and tax considerations under state and national carbon emissions programs, concludes that, while the timing and scope of climate change legislation in the US is uncertain, many countries around the globe (and many states) have some type of regulatory program to manage carbon emissions. With the strong likelihood that there will be more regulatory activity in the US, companies should consider carbon emissions requirements as part of their businesses and financial management strategies now, including establishing plans for measurement, monitoring, reporting and accounting.

“Being carbon market ready is logical business,” explains Steve Starbuck, the newly appointed Leader of Americas Climate Change and Sustainability Services for Ernst & Young LLP. Starbuck, a 30-year veteran of the Firm, coordinates climate change and sustainability services in the Americas and is a member of the climate change advisory board of the Global Ernst & Young organization. “The global carbon market is likely to grow significantly in the future. Preparing for and identifying related business risks and opportunities up-front, can better position an organization for growth and provide a competitive edge. Last week’s SEC action further highlights the increasing need for companies to have the systems and processes in place to keep their stakeholders informed,” Starbuck continued.

Ernst & Young’s report reveals that, in a survey of more than 1,000 US public registrants with revenues between $1 billion and $100 billion, just 29 companies disclosed an accounting policy related to emissions credits or allowances in notes to their financial statements. Additionally, far fewer than half of the approximately 1,000 corporate representatives participating in an Ernst & Young webcast on January 12, 2010 –- Climate change and carbon markets: what every business needs to know and why –- claimed to have a strategy in place to deal with carbon emissions regulations or markets.

Following various state and federal reporting frameworks, as well as the evolving accounting standards and tax regulations governing carbon emission management could pose many challenges. To stay ahead of the curve, companies should fully embed carbon-related considerations in their business strategies to address climate change issues effectively. They should review their risk management processes as well as day-to-day business operations, accounting and tax planning.

Business of Climate Change Report

2010-02-05T16:55:00.000-08:00

Two reports that I am reading. They are two years old and things have moved forward with Copenhagen etc. but they are some of the best analyses I have read so far.

The Business of Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities (Feb 2007)

Lehman Brothers decided to take a hard look at global warming, starting with the scientific and climatological evidence, then proceeding to the economic consequences and implications for policy; and finally – with significant help from the Firm’s equity analysts – considering potential impacts on major business sectors. The result is this publication: The Business of Climate Change: Challenges and opportunities. It reaches a number of broad conclusions. Global warming, we judge, is likely to prove one of those tectonic forces that – like globalization or the ageing of populations – gradually but powerfully changes the economic landscape in which our clients operate, and one that causes periodic sharp movements in asset prices.

And, as the title indicates, we consider that climate change poses many challenges but also presents many business opportunities. Firms that recognise the challenge early, and respond imaginatively and constructively, will create opportunities for themselves and thereby prosper. Others, slower to realise what is going on or electing to ignore it, will likely do markedly less well.

This study is far from the last word: indeed, we see it as just the starting point for adialogue with our investing and corporate clients. As the discussions with our clients and policy experts progress, we will take this work further.

Dr John Llewellyn
Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Lehman Brothers

There was followup to the previous report The Business of Climate Change II Policy is accelerating, with major implications for companies and investors (Sep 2007)

There is, in our view, a particular sense in this. Until recently, many – and in some countries most – climate change policy proposals have originated mainly outside government. Today, however, governments themselves are increasingly becoming directly involved in policy proposal and design. Thus far, in most national administrations, responsibility has come in as far as ministries of environment, technology, energy, and industry. However, we judge that ultimately the nexus of responsibility, at least for key climate change policies, will move inwards still further – into treasuries and ministries of finance. And when these ministries take over responsibility, policymaking will acquire a harder edge: the objective of policy design will be not only to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but to reduce them at the lowest possible cost.

Thus economic considerations are poised to assume their greatest weight yet in policy debate and design. A year or two from now, of course, the debate will have moved on: client concern will likely be with analysing the consequences of actual policies, or at least of more concrete policy proposals. But that is for tomorrow.

We trust that this volume will be a constructive sequel to The Business of Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities, for clients and others who seek clues about how policy may look, a year or two from now, and about what some of the implications may be for business.

Business of Climate Change Conference 2009

2010-02-05T16:39:00.000-08:00

A recent conference held in canada.

Business of Climate Change Conference 2009

Businesses all over the world are looking to transition to a low carbon economy in order to manage increasing regulatory, investor, physical and reputational risks. Unlike previous recessions where the environment was put on the back burner, governments around the globe are forging ahead with green stimulus investments and carbon constraining legislation.

At this year's conference you'll hear from public policy experts on the probable domestic and international regulatory context, short and medium term scenarios and implications for Canadian business. Learn from leading corporate executives about their strategies, successes and challenges in analyzing climate change across business units, reducing risks, increasing value and realizing positive bottom line results.

The most interesting (and only publicly available) presentation was by Jeff Rubin who is author of Why Your World is About to get Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization . He is an economist and makes arguments are familiar to those of us following peak oil discussions. His basic thesis is that globization will reverse itself for low value goods. The margins, he says, are too small to withstand triple digit oil. I am looking forward to reading his book on the specifics. Intuitively it makes sense but numbers are always good.

Hidden Costs of Energy

2010-02-05T10:22:00.000-08:00

This is a very conservative study that puts the price at 120B$ mostly derived from health costs associated with air pollutants (particulate matter, sulphur, nitrogen oxide). This will help develop new ways to measure true cost of energy similar to the new FBCF (Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel) methodology for energy use in military.

Hidden Costs of Energy:
Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use

There is a podcast as well. Snippets from the summary:

Based on the results of external-cost studies published in the 1990s, we focused especially on air pollution. In particular, we evaluated effects related to emissions of particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx), which form criteria air pollutants.1 We monetized effects of those pollutants on human health, grain crop and timber yields, building materials, recreation, and visibility of outdoor vistas. Health damages, which include premature mortality and morbidity (such as chronic bronchitis and asthma), constituted the vast majority of monetized damages, with premature mortality being the single largest health-damage category.

...

The damage estimates presented in this report for various external effects are substantial. Just the damages from external effects the committee was able to quantify add up to more than $120 billion for the year 2005.15 Although large uncertainties are associated with the committee’s estimates, there is little doubt that this aggregate total substantially underestimates the damages, because it does not include many other kinds of damages that could not be quantified for reasons explained in the report, such as damages related to some pollutants, climate change, ecosystems, infrastructure and security. In many cases we have identified those omissions, within the chapters of this report, with the hope that they will be evaluated in future studies.

Washpost: SEC to require disclosure of climate change risks

2010-02-04T20:56:00.001-08:00

Yet another technical hurdle has been crossed with this SEC resolution. It will make climate change consideration a norm, a concern for the shareholders, and reduction a responsibility of the management.

Washpost: SEC to require disclosure of climate change risks

The commission, in a 3 to 2 vote, decided to require that companies disclose in their public filings the impact of climate change on their businesses -- from new regulations or legislation they may face domestically or abroad to potential changes in economic trends or physical risks to a company.

Schapiro said companies already must disclose anything that can have a significant effect on their bottom lines. But she said the SEC's action on Wednesday was intended to provide more guidance on what might be taken into account. "The commission is not making any kind of statement regarding the facts as they relate to the topic of climate change or global warming," Schapiro said.

A number of large institutional investors had been urging the SEC to put more pressure on companies to disclose more details about the effects of climate change on their businesses.

Is this our moment?

2010-01-28T18:41:00.000-08:00

Leonardo DiCaprio would like you to think so!. He is not first Hollywood celebrity to go green. Tom Hanks went electric sometime back. The ad is interesting. It has a business case, explicit threat ("we are watching you senator"), and action for the viewers ("flood inboxes", "tweet", "share"). The slogan 'This is Our Moment' is a familiar one from Obama's campaign.

Deutsche Bank 2010 Investing in Climate Change Report

2010-01-23T13:07:00.000-08:00

Deutsche Bank 2010 Investing in Climate Change Report released at the Investor Summit on Climate Risk at the U.N that I talked about in my previous post. I am copying first section of the summary which itself is very detailed. I am ploughing through this as I write. I think this report with all its detailed investment analysis and the nature of the audience means that people think there are serious money at stake here. The document is very readable. Highly recommended.

Climate Change Investment Thesis and Opportunity
Demographics, socio-economic change and long-term energy demand drive increased global consumption of scarce resources
These drivers result in rapidly increasing emissions and corresponding changes to the earth's climate
DBCCA has established "Four Pillars of Climate Change" investment to provide an analytical framework for understanding the investor response to climate change
The scale of mitigating/stabilizing our climate will require unprecedented economic growth, which will result in low-carbon prosperity and job creation
Climate change must be understood in the context of an integrated framework of both halting and adapting to its effects
The climate change investment universe is broad, covering many technology sectors and themes
These sectors and themes are applicable to a variety of asset classes
Investors will pursue many different strategies across these asset classes, each with different risk attributes and environmental impact
A strategic risk premium for climate change, such as carbon beta, can be applied to traditional portfolios to analyze risk an optimize return

Investors Push for Rapid Action

2010-01-23T12:22:00.000-08:00

This is from the Investor Summit on Low Carbon Economy .

Investors Representing $13 Trillion Call on U.S. and Other Countries to Move Quickly to Adopt Strong Climate Change Policies
“Cannot Wait for a Global Treaty,” Investors Tell Congress and other Government Policymakers at United Nations Investors Climate Summit

Saying “we cannot wait for a global treaty,” U.S., European and Australian investor groups representing $13 trillion in assets called on U.S. Congress and other global decision-makers “to take rapid action” on carbon emission limits, energy efficiency, renewable energy, financing mechanisms and other policies that will accelerate clean energy investment and job creation. Investors made clear today that there are competitive advantages for countries with comprehensive climate and energy policies.

I have written in the past about this coalition (INCR) which is pushing for systemic changes to get the low carbon economy. It represented 7T$ of assets when I last wrote. Now it looks like the coalition has expanded to represent about 13T$ of investment including CalPERS.

The investor statement suggests a great opportunity to make money.

While leading studies indicate that the costs of action to reduce GHG emissions are both affordable and significantly lower than the costs of inaction,2 developing a global low-carbon economy will nonetheless require substantially increased levels of investment from the private sector. For example, the UNFCCC Secretariat estimates that more than $200 billion in total additional investment capital for mitigation is required each year by 2030 just to return GHGs to their current levels by then,3 while the International Energy Agency estimates that additional investment of $10.5 trillion is needed globally in just the energy sector from 2010–2030 to stabilize GHG emissions at around 450ppm.4 This equates to roughly 0.1% of the total value of world financial assets and approximately 0.23% of the total value of debt and equity securities,5 so this is certainly an achievable level of investment – and one that would yield returns in terms of energy savings, energy security, reduced capital expenditures for pollution control, and avoided climate damages. But it is also well above current investment levels. Although public spending in this arena has increased recently to hasten recovery from the global recession, more than 85% of the total investments needed to meet the climate challenge will likely have to come from private capital.

Investors will seek every sound investment opportunity, but until governments establish policies and rules that make low-carbon strategies the clear strategic choice for all businesses, we will not be able to deploy capital into low-carbon investments at the scale required. Until then, our billions of dollars in investments will remain a ‘drop in the bucket’
compared to the trillions of dollars needed. To enable the necessary flows of private capital and allow us to fully assist in achieving a low-carbon and sustainable global economy, policymakers around the world must act swiftly. National policies are needed that provide greater certainty about the direction of climate and energy regulation, ensure transparent markets, facilitate wider and more open capital flows for carbon trading and investment, and benefit consumers and workers as they transition to a low-carbon economy. Accordingly, we see the following measures as being critical for unleashing the volumes of private capital urgently needed to meet the challenges of climate change:

Going green increasing disputes?

2010-01-18T19:48:00.000-08:00

Not the least bit surprising. It is easy to judge others in terms of environmental performance. I often turnoff the water tap when my apartment-mate is cleaning utensils because it is wasteful. How much is good enough is an endless discussion. I foresee norms evolving to reduce this conflict similar to notions of personal responsibility and private space.

Therapists Report Increase in Green Disputes

As awareness of environmental concerns has grown, therapists say they are seeing a rise in bickering between couples and family members over the extent to which they should change their lives to save the planet.

In households across the country, green lines are being drawn between those who insist on wild salmon and those who buy farmed, those who calculate their carbon footprint and those who remain indifferent to greenhouse gases.

“As the focus on climate increases in the public’s mind, it can’t help but be a part of people’s planning about the future,” said Thomas Joseph Doherty, a clinical psychologist in Portland, Ore., who has a practice that focuses on environmental issues. “It touches every part of how they live: what they eat, whether they want to fly, what kind of vacation they want.”

While no study has documented how frequent these clashes have become, therapists agree that the green issue can quickly become poisonous because it is so morally charged. Friends or family members who are not devoted to the environmental cause can become irritated by life choices they view as ostentatiously self-denying or politically correct.

Those with a heightened focus on environmental issues, on the other hand, can find it hard to refrain from commenting on things that they view as harmful to Earth — driving an oversize S.U.V., for example.

Off for a few days

2010-01-13T19:01:00.001-08:00

I have been catching up with some research into military
energy. Stay tuned.

Visit to Travel Town Railway Museum, Los Angeles

2010-01-08T10:21:00.000-08:00

I visited The Travel Town railway museum. It is small but has a pretty decent collection. There was only one electric and one diesel engine. Even within the small collection, you can see the progression in terms of technology.

Toyota's Jim Lentz Predicts Peak Oil by 2020

2009-12-30T17:51:00.000-08:00

Jim is president of Toyota USA. Jim says that their plans are based on that assumption. The interviewer asked if it was his personal opinion or it is Toyota's. Jim confirmed that it is Toyota's view. This is indeed news. Presumably GM and other car makers also take this view.

Toyota's Jim Lentz Predicts Peak Oil by 2020

Cap-n-trade battle heats up

2009-12-28T21:00:00.000-08:00

New groups join climate lobby fray

An analysis of the latest federal records by the Center for Public Integrity shows that the overall number of businesses and groups lobbying on climate legislation has essentially held steady at about 1,160, thanks in part to a variety of interests that have left the fray. But a close look at the 140 or so interests that jumped into the debate for the first time in the third quarter shows a marked trend: Companies and organizations that feel they’ve been overlooked are fighting for a place at the table.
...
At issue are the free “allowances,” or carbon dioxide pollution permits, that the House-passed climate bill would give to manufacturers that use a lot of energy to produce internationally traded products such as steel and aluminum. Those energy-intensive industries fighting international competitors successfully lobbied for protection from loss of jobs to China and other cheap-energy countries if the United States unilaterally enacted a carbon reduction program that would make coal burning more expensive here. But the House bill’s approach means manufacturers that don’t use as much energy — like Campbell — would have to bid at auction for carbon emission allowances from the federal government.

Johnston argues that Campbell should either be exempt from that process or be provided some freebies, too. “I think it’s clear from our view that we're not being treated as fairly as carbon-intensive industries,” Johnston said. “There needs to be some recognition of the role the food industry plays in our economy.”

The report is based on an investigation by Center for Public Integrity.
They have a number of videos on youtube like this one on carbon markets lobby.

Business leaders unhappy with COP15 deal

2009-12-21T09:30:00.000-08:00

They can do more to persuade their colleagues. It is a bit disingenuous. After all, the governments represent the commercial interests in a large part.

Business chiefs hit at climate agreement

Global energy businesses are disappointed and confused by the climate deal agreed in Copenhagen, saying it does not provide enough certainty to justify the huge investments needed to cut carbon emissions.

The deal – agreed by major economies including the US and China on Friday evening but not formally adopted by the United Nations – makes a commitment to limit the rise in global temperatures but does not specify caps on emissions to achieve that objective.

Chief executives and business groups in Europe were particularly critical of the deal. Peter Voser – the chief executive of oil and gas group Royal Dutch Shell, which has supported limiting emissions – said “much more” was needed.

The role of business will be crucial in fighting the threat of global warming, with the private sector expected to provide about 90 per cent of the $500bn a year investment needed.

Was Copenhagen's weak deal predictable?

2009-12-20T17:52:00.000-08:00

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicted and the outcome is reasonably consistent with his prediction. He has a game-theoretic model built on the assumption that everybody wants to further their interests, and the outcome depends on three factors for each player - announced goal/preference for particular outcomes, power to influence the outcome, and salience/importance of the outcome. He has a model that combines them, and simulates the behavior across multiple decisions. He is still positive. His basic point is that once the big emerging countries grow richer, they will join the rest of the world. They will take the next major steps, he suggests, when the technology is ready - scalable, cheap, low carbon energy.

Recipe for Failure
Why Copenhagen will be a bust, and other prophecies from the foreign-policy world's leading predictioneer.

The trouble is, deals like Bali and Kyoto include just about every country in the world. To get everyone to agree to something potentially costly, the something they actually agree to must be neither very demanding nor very costly. If it is, many will refuse to join because for them the costs are greater than the benefits, or else they will join while free-riding on the costs paid by the few who are willing to bear them.

To get people to sign a universal agreement and not cheat, the deal must not ask them to change their behavior much from whatever they are already doing. It is a race to the bottom, to the lowest common denominator. More demanding agreements weed out prospective members or encourage lies. Kyoto's demands weeded out the United States, ensuring that it could not succeed. Maybe that is what those who signed on -- or at least some of them -- were hoping for. They can look good and then not deliver, because after all it wouldn't be fair for them to cut back when the biggest polluter, the United States, does not. Sacrificing self-interest for the greater good just doesn't happen very often. Governments don't throw themselves on hand grenades.

There is a natural division between the rich countries whose prosperity does not depend so much on toasting our planet and the poor countries that really have no affordable alternative (yet) to fossil fuels and carbon emissions. They have an incentive to do whatever it takes to improve the quality of life of the people they govern. The rich have an incentive to encourage the fast-growing poor to be greener, but the fast-growing poor have little incentive to listen as long as they are still poor. As the Indian government is fond of noting, sure, India is growing rapidly in income and in carbon dioxide emissions, but it is still a pale shadow of what rich countries like the United States have emitted over the centuries when going from poor to rich.

But when the fast-growing poor surpass the rich, the tables will turn. China, India, Brazil, and Mexico will then cry out for environmental change because that will protect their future advantaged position, while the relatively poor of one or two or three hundred years from now will resist policies that hinder their efforts to climb to the top. The rich will even fight wars to keep the rising poor from getting so rich that they threaten the old political order. (The rising poor will win those wars, by the way.)

Business models for low carbon economy

2009-12-15T13:07:00.000-08:00

The talk about appropriate business models has started - all around decoupling the GDP/growth from resource consumption.

New Business Models for a Low Carbon Economy

The 'clean energy' model: Substitution of existing energy sources
The ecological industry model: Optimize existing processes for lower carbon
The 3rd orientation: Offer service instead of product, e.g., transport service instead of car sale
Futuristic service: Sell virtualized equivalents that achieve the same function with less resource

UPS Carbon neutral shipping

2009-12-12T13:29:00.000-08:00

I expect this model to become more common - a carbon-neutral version of every product/service.

UPS carbon neutral shipping

For as little as five cents more per package, gain more control over your climate impact with UPS carbon neutral shipping, a UPS shipping service that offsets the carbon dioxide (CO2) associated with the packages it transports.

... UPS carbon neutral shipping empowers you to take action to offset the impact of carbon emissions that results from your shipping.

Additionally, UPS will match the carbon offsets purchased for the first $1 million through 2010. It's a deeper commitment toward managing our climate impact.

...you can use verified carbon neutral shipping to offset the climate impact.

Want to do more? Check out other ways that UPS helps individuals and businesses become greener, from reducing paper and greening up packaging to making supply chains more efficient.

...you can use verified carbon neutral shipping to offset the climate impact.

Want to do more? Check out other ways that UPS helps individuals and businesses become greener, from reducing paper and greening up packaging to making supply chains more efficient.

...We purchase high quality Gold Standard, Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS), and Climate Action Reserve (CAR) verified offsets, as well as European Union Allowances and Certified Emission Reduction offsets.

When you choose UPS, you are selecting a company that has already made great strides to reduce its own impact. Check out our comprehensive commitment to sustainability.

AP review of CRU emails: Science not faked, but not pretty

2009-12-12T11:42:00.000-08:00

It seems that scientific process got a little messy because of the politics and money associated with the results of science. This is not dissimilar to experiences in science associated with cloning and stem cells, breast cancer, nutrition, psychology, genetic engineering etc.

Scientists should be formally trained to handle politics and social dynamics.

AP IMPACT: Science not faked, but not pretty

E-mails stolen from climate scientists show they stonewalled skeptics and discussed hiding data — but the messages don't support claims that the science of global warming was faked, according to an exhaustive review by The Associated Press.

The 1,073 e-mails examined by the AP show that scientists harbored private doubts, however slight and fleeting, even as they told the world they were certain about climate change. However, the exchanges don't undercut the vast body of evidence showing the world is warming because of man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists were keenly aware of how their work would be viewed and used, and, just like politicians, went to great pains to shape their message. Sometimes, they sounded more like schoolyard taunts than scientific tenets.

The scientists were so convinced by their own science and so driven by a cause "that unless you're with them, you're against them," said Mark Frankel, director of scientific freedom, responsibility and law at the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He also reviewed the communications.

Frankel saw "no evidence of falsification or fabrication of data, although concerns could be raised about some instances of very 'generous interpretations.'"
...
"This is normal science politics, but on the extreme end, though still within bounds," said Dan Sarewitz, a science policy professor at Arizona State University. "We talk about science as this pure ideal and the scientific method as if it is something out of a cookbook, but research is a social and human activity full of all the failings of society and humans, and this reality gets totally magnified by the high political stakes here."

Dow jones index for climate change

2009-12-12T11:13:00.000-08:00

Ah! Another potential milestone in the journey. We now have a proposal/system for a single digit summary of state of the earth's environment. There would naturally be some differences between this and traditional Dow Jones Index for stock market. We may be care about first and second derivatives more than the actual number. Unlike Dow Jones Index in which "control loop" (Fed/Treasury response) is real time, the "control loop" for the climate change index will be long drawn out, may be even years. The new "control loop" may be in terms of new regulations, carbon pricing etc. Changes in the index may be help set medium and long term investment direction more than short term.

Its value may be primarily psychological in terms of making the climate concerns a norm and a dinner table conversation.

Dow Jones Index for Climate Change

Some people still question whether Earth's climate is changing as rapidly and profoundly as the majority of climate scientists suggest. But, what if the complexity of the Earth's climate were distilled down to one number, in the same way that the Dow Jones Index condenses volumes of data into a single figure? What, then, would be the general trend?

The IGBP Climate-Change Index is a first attempt to do just that. It brings together key indicators of global change: carbon dioxide, temperature, sea level and sea ice. The index gives an annual snapshot of how the planet's complex systems -- the ice, the oceans, the land surface and the atmosphere -- are responding to the changing climate. The index rises steadily from 1980 -- the earliest date the index has been calculated. The change is unequivocal, it is global, and, significantly, it is in one direction. The reason for concern becomes clear: in just 30 years we are witnessing major planetary-scale changes.
...
The idea came about when several IGBP scientists including Steven Running, IGBP executive director Sybil Seitzinger, former IGBP director Kevin Noone, Kathy Hibbard, Mark Stafford Smith, Peter Cox, Suzi Kerr and Pierre Friedlingsten realised that the way various global datasets are reported throughout the year may be confusing. It is uncoordinated, there are a variety of unfamiliar units, and natural variability sometimes masks a trend.

Professor Seitzinger says, "We felt people outside global-change research are not clear about the scale of the changes scientists are witnessing. The index is a response to these concerns."

Inside COP15 video

2009-12-11T16:12:00.000-08:00

From WWF

Tonight's live show from Copenhagen with guests Klaus Bondam, Mayor of the Copenhagen Environmental Administration, Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Environmental Scientist and Dawa Stephen Sherpa, Mountaineer.

Cop15 progress

2009-12-11T16:08:00.000-08:00

Have been busy last few days. catching up.

There is a detailed report on the progress here from the Earth Negotiations Bulletin:

Fifteenth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Fifth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 15 and COP/MOP 5)

IN THE CORRIDORS
Much of the talk in the corridors on Thursday afternoon and evening was focused on the suspension of both the COP and COP/MOP, pending consultations on whether to establish contact groups to consider proposed new protocols under the Convention and proposed amendments to the Kyoto Protocol. As on Wednesday when the COP was suspended, Tuvalu led a group of African, Latin American and AOSIS parties in urging a formal contact group to consider the proposed Protocol amendments, and resisted proposals to move the procedural question to an informal setting with a review of progress in plenary on Saturday.

Many noted that these disputes were closely related to the question concerning the legal form of the outcome: “We have still not resolved the critical question of the legal outcome of these negotiations,” noted one old hand in the process. “Developing countries want to preserve and strengthen Kyoto, while most Annex I countries are seeking a comprehensive legal framework that also engages the US and developing countries in mitigation efforts.” Differences were also detected among developing countries as to whether the outcome from the AWG-LCA should be legally-binding.

The wisdom of suspending work under COP and COP/MOP and its implications were also being discussed around the Bella Center. Some viewed the request to also suspend the COP/MOP as a good strategic move, while others feared it could delay work on other issues. “It hasn’t slowed the informals under the AWG-LCA,” said one NGO who was supportive of AOSIS’ stand. “I’m just not sure how they’ll break the deadlock,” she added.

Meanwhile, delegates were also reacting to the leak of a proposed outcome document – the “Copenhagen Accord” – by French newspaper Le Monde. The text, which was said to have been developed by China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, had apparently been distributed among G-77/China parties earlier in the week before the leak on Thursday. While the initial response to the text was cautious, some developed country delegates seemed positively surprised by what they characterized as a relatively “realistic” text. For their part, some of those connected with the text were playing down its significance at this stage, with delegates noting that it has “limited status” and is “just a working draft.”

People were also commenting on the increasing number of people at the Bella Center on Thursday, as more ministers arrived and delegations continued to grow. Lines to get into the building were noticeably longer than in previous days, and there was talk of limits on observer numbers next week. “The place is already packed and there’ll be thousands more next week,” noted one insider. Rumors were also circulating about large-scale protests planned for Saturday.

EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment

2009-12-07T10:40:00.000-08:00

Breaking news...

EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment / Science overwhelmingly shows greenhouse gas concentrations at unprecedented levels due to human activity

After a thorough examination of the scientific evidence and careful consideration of public comments, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people. EPA also finds that GHG emissions from on-road vehicles contribute to that threat.

The actual finding
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act

On December 7, 2009, the Administrator signed two distinct findings regarding greenhouse gases under section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act:

* Endangerment Finding: The Administrator finds that the current and projected concentrations of the six key well-mixed greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)--in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.
* Cause or Contribute Finding: The Administrator finds that the combined emissions of these well-mixed greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the greenhouse gas pollution which threatens public health and welfare.

These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities. However, this action is a prerequisite to finalizing the EPA’s proposed greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles, which were jointly proposed by EPA and the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Safety Administration on September 15, 2009.

Cop15 - Day 0 Photos

2009-12-07T09:55:00.000-08:00

Coordinated frontpage climate stories across the world

2009-12-06T16:03:00.000-08:00

Guardian shows leadership! This is amazing effort that will put climate change in front of millions of people - literally on the front page. They summarize their thinking in a related article (quoted below). Hat tip.

More than 50 papers join in front-page leader article on climate change

The Guardian has teamed up with more 50 papers worldwide to run the same front-page leader article calling for action at the climate summit in Copenhagen, which begins tomorrow.

This unprecedented project is the result of months of negotiations between the papers to agree on a final text, in a process that mirrors the kind of diplomatic wrangling among the world's governments that is likely to precede any potential deal on climate change.

Fifty-six papers in 45 countries published in 20 different languages have joined the initiative, and will feature the leader in some form on their front pages.

How the climate change global editorial project came about

Climate change poses a particular challenge to journalists. It is almost incontrovertibly the biggest story we cover; perhaps the only one with genuinely existential implications. Otherwise measured scientists discuss it in apocalyptic terms. Campaigners and politicians talk about a crossroads in human history. But how do we reflect the scale and urgency of the issue in the normal register of journalism?

How can it make sense to find a story about the disappearance of arctic sea ice on page 17 of a newspaper, sandwiched between an unexceptional murder trial and the latest bickering over MPs expenses? Or even on the front page, when the same slot the previous day was occupied by a story about plans to trim civil service jobs?

At the Guardian, we have tried to answer the challenge by covering the story in ever greater depth, devoting more space and resources – six specialist reporters – as well as a dedicated environment website. But this approach has its dangers too: bombarded with a seemingly endless stream of dire predictions and diplomatic setbacks, which of us has not been tempted to climb back into bed and pull up the duvet over our heads? So intense has been the blizzard of climate change coverage in the months leading up to the Copenhagen summit that at times even the most shocking stories have barely cut through the white noise.

Hence today's Guardian-led initiative in which 56 major newspapers in 45 countries speak with a single voice (albeit in 20 different languages) through a shared editorial. As Guardian editor-in-chief Alan Rusbridger put it: "Newspapers have never done anything like this before - but they have never had to cover a story like this before."

Green tinge at the LA Autoshow (photos)

2009-12-06T12:48:00.000-08:00

I went to the LA Autoshow yesterday with the aim of documenting the progress on the electrification of transport. I spoke to a few people as well. Some notes:

1. Fuel efficiency was prominent but the emphasis is on the aesthetics, comfort etc.
2. Every major manufacturer had a hybrid and/or electric on display.
3. Atleast one automaker (Hyundai) thought that talking about Carbon offsets will attract customers. (even though their vehicles themselves were not as green as I expected. They had no PHEV on display that I remember).
4. The Mitsubishi vehicle is designed to act as a generator to feed back energy to home other appliances. Their staff didnt know whether they had done surveys before adding that feature.
5. There were a couple of Natural gas vehicles but they were clearly deemphasized.

I test drove Ford Fusion Hybrid Electric vehicle. It felt as comfortable as other vehicles. It was quiet and smooth. I drove 1.5 miles at 36 mi/gallon efficiency, worked completely from the battery with no consumption of fuel. There was nice animation on the dashboard where you see green leaves increasing as the drive becomes more efficient. One of the staff described it as a "game" where you nudge the user driving behavior in such a way that it reduces CO2.

Obama ups the ante

2009-12-04T16:56:00.000-08:00

Just for context, O's Nobel Prize Lecture is on Dec 10.

BREAKING: In last-minute stunner, Obama changes plans to attend final day of Copenhagen talks

A couple of hours ago, the Obama administration announced a startling shift in plans: rather than stop by the Copenhagen climate talks on Dec. 9, Obama will be going on the 18th, the final day of the meeting—a notable increase in commitment (and political exposure) from the administration.

The first week of every COP meeting consists of posturing, speeches, protests, and NGO reports. Everything of significance to the treaty is announced late in the meetings, often on the last day, after a flurry of last-minute negotiations. Coming to Copenhagen at the climax of the talks, specifically to push negotiations “over the top,” as the White House statement says, is a risky move for Obama. He’s got skin in the game now; he’ll look foolish if he rides in at the last minute and fails to broker an agreement.

If he’s willing to stick his neck out like this, Obama must be pretty confident that he can get a deal. There have been signs of momentum for weeks now. The much-discussed deal with China was just one in a raft of commitments from the developing countries, including India and Brazil. Movement from the developing world has undercut one of U.S. conservatives’ principal arguments for inaction. Over 65 world leaders have pledged to attend.

Meanwhile, the U.S. EPA is expected to finalize its endangerment ruling on CO2 on Monday—the kickoff day of Copenhagen—making regulations on CO2 legally mandated and all but inevitable. That’s likely to help motivate the Senate, where Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) are busy working out a compromise bill that can get 60 votes. Kerry released the Foreign Relations Committee’s contribution to the bill today, which would authorize programs, including adaptation funding and technology transfer, that the U.S. is expected to offer as part of a deal in Copenhagen.

Cop15 Links

2009-12-04T15:53:00.000-08:00

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Seal the Deal!

World's highest cabinet meeting

2009-12-04T15:32:00.000-08:00

Drama has its place in politics. First we had the cabinet meeting under water, now we have one on a mountain.

Cabinet meeting at Mt. Everest

On Friday, to highlight the danger that global warming poses to glaciers, Nepal's government held a Cabinet meeting at Mt. Everest - a stunt the government billed as the world's highest Cabinet meeting. The ministers posed for pictures, signed a commitment to tighten environmental regulations and expand the nation's protected areas, and then quickly flew away.

"The Everest declaration was a message to the world to minimize the negative impact of climate change on Mount Everest and other Himalayan mountains," Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal later said.

The Prime Minister, his two deputy prime ministers and the 20 Cabinet ministers were examined by doctors before boarding helicopters to Kalapathar, a flat area at an altitude of 17,192 feet (5,250 meters) next to Everest base camp, the jumping point for climbers seeking to scale the peak.

Family planning offsets?

2009-12-03T10:41:00.000-08:00

Sir Attenborough may be fine gentlemen but he should to be sensitive to how it appears from the other side of the pond.

I am not sure the rest of the world needs or desires another form or round of 19th and 20th century liberal paternalism and possibly even imperialism, to put it mildly. People do not forget history.

I do believe that family planning is necessary in developing countries for their own reasons and not CO2. And they are working on it. Economist recently had an article on rapidly falling fertility rates in developing countries. It will fall more rapidly as prosperity increases.

As Goerge Monbiot suggests towards the end, the problem is not the number but the level of consumption. With a GDP of 1100$ per-capita GDP, a Kenyan kid is not going to consume a lot of energy or produce CO2. What he needs is education, governance, infrastructure and ofcourse green technology. Kenyan/indian/chinese mothers and fathers are rational enough to make decisions about children. They definitely need partners, but not carbon offsets based on their lives.

I dont expect this idea to go anywhere but it can increase distrust and create hurdles in the negotiations.

Rich nations to offset emissions with birth control

Radical plan to cut CO2 argues that paying for family planning is developing world is the best bet

Consumers in the developed world are to be offered a radical method of offsetting their carbon emissions in an ambitious attempt to tackle climate change - by paying for contraception measures in poorer countries to curb the rapidly growing global population.

The scheme - set up by an organisation backed by Sir David Attenborough, the former diplomat Sir Crispin Tickell and green figureheads such as Jonathon Porritt and James Lovelock - argues that family planning is the most effective way to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic global warming.

Optimum Population Trust (Opt) stresses that birth control will be provided only to those who have no access to it, and only unwanted births would be avoided. Opt estimates that 80 million pregnancies each year are unwanted.

The cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the trust claims that family planning is the cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions. Every £4 spent on contraception, it says, saves one tonne of CO2 being added to global warming, but a similar reduction in emissions would require an £8 investment in tree planting, £15 in wind power, £31 in solar energy and £56 in hybrid vehicle technology.

Calculations based on the trust's figures show the 10 tonnes emitted by a return flight from London to Sydney would be offset by enabling the avoidance of one unwanted birth in a country such as Kenya. Such action not only cuts emissions but reduces the number of people who will fall victim to climate change, it says.

"The scheme, called PopOffsets, understands the connection [between population increase and climate change]," says the trust director Roger Martin. "It offers a practical and sensible response. For the first time ever individuals, companies and organisations will have the opportunity to offset their carbon voluntarily by supporting projects to provide family planning services where there is currently unmet demand."

India commits to 24% reduction in Carbon intensity

2009-12-02T10:08:00.000-08:00

India is talking about intensities and not absolute targets compared to BAU. I also hope by carbon sinks, they dont mean the untested carbon sequestration approach. I hope they mean forestry, algae, and such. There was a recent conference in Delhi on second generation bio-fuels and expo.

India to reduce carbon intensity by 24% by 2020
Environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, expected to formally announce the targets in parliament tomorrow

India could reduce its carbon intensity by 24% by 2020 compared with 2005 levels, government sources revealed today.

The leaked figures, which emerged ahead of the Copenhagen climate change summit next Monday, follow Beijing's announcement last week that China would move to cut carbon intensity - the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic growth - by more than 40% by 2020.

The EU has already pledged a 20% cut in carbon emissions by 2020 - set to rise to 30% if other developed countries match the European target - while the US last month proposed cuts of 17%.

Sources told the Indian media that the reduction in carbon intensity could go up to 37% by 2030, compared to 2005. India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, is expected to make a statement in parliament tomorrow to announce the targets, Reuters reported.

To reduce emissions, India's national action plan on climate change sees increasing solar power generation, improving energy efficiency and enhancing carbon sinks as a route to "greener growth". In August, India laid out an ambitious plan to generate 20GW of solar power by 2020, which could equate to 75% of the world's solar energy.

Aviation Industry at COP15

2009-12-02T09:46:00.000-08:00

Posted on twitter by enviroaero

This is similar to the shipping industry's response. I think there is merit to the idea that industries that cross national boundaries should be managed by a neutral third party, possibly a new UN organization or subgroup that works with the Aviation industry.

The global aviation sector:
united behind common goals and a global solution
A global approach for a global industry tackling a global problem

Recommendations for including aviation in a global climate change framework
The global aviation sector believes:
1. Aircraft CO2 emissions should be addressed in any post-Kyoto global framework, through the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO).
2. Emissions from aviation should be addressed through ICAO adopting a global sectoral approach that does not
distort competition amongst airlines, treats aviation as one indivisible sector rather than by country and takes a
global approach to emissions reduction.
3. Aviation emissions should only be accounted for (and paid for) once.
4. The aviation industry can achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and work towards reducing aviation net
carbon emissions by 50% in 2050, compared to 2005 levels. These ambitious targets require assistance from
governments through:
• the necessary investments to modernise air traffic management
• investment in aerodynamic and operations technology research and development through academic and
industry partners
• investment in the development and commercialisation of sustainable, second-generation biofuels for use in
aviation

Munich Re: Ambitious climate targets needed

2009-12-01T09:42:00.000-08:00

This is interesting coming from the insurance industry who will see payouts if bad things happen. The fact that payouts will increase does not necessarily mean that insurance industry cares. It could easily mean brisk business. We need to dig a little deeper to understand their economics and response. But at the surface, it makes the right noises.

Ambitious climate protection targets are needed –
or the cost of climate change will keep rising

Munich Re’s NatCatSERVICE database shows that, globally, the average number of major weather-related catastrophes such as windstorms, floods or droughts is now three times as high as at the beginning of the 1980s. Losses have risen even more, with average increases of 11% per year since 1980. To what extent the increased losses are due to climate change is not yet clear. Preliminary analyses suggest that it accounts for a low single-digit percentage of
annual overall losses.

Although this increase appears low, the amounts involved are enormous. This is illustrated by total natural catastrophes losses in the period 1980–2008. According to studies by Munich Re, overall losses due to weather-related events came to around US$ 1.6tn in original values, with insured losses amounting to approximately US$ 465bn. In the period from 2000–2008 alone, overall losses totalled over US$ 750bn, whilst insured losses came to around US$ 280bn.

“Even conservative estimates show that we are talking here about climate change costs already running into billions per year. The insurance industry is able to adapt but, in the end, each individual has to bear the cost”, said Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research. “It is therefore very important and makes economic sense to lay cornerstones for a new agreement, with ambitious targets, in Copenhagen. After all, the climate reacts slowly. Even now, climate change can no longer be halted, it can only be attenuated. And it is time this was done.”

According to Höppe, in Copenhagen a binding commitment will have to be defined that limits global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This can be done only if global carbon emissions are cut to 50% of 1990 levels by 2050. Höppe: “That means the industrial countries will have to achieve 80%, and that globally there will have to be a real fall in emissions within the next few years.” Furthermore, to rapidly find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, all the principal carbon emitters would have to accept binding reduction targets.

Children’s Climate Forum

2009-11-30T16:15:00.000-08:00

Continuing with the theme of youth involvement. This is a very interesting effort from the Danish government and schools. They may be young but they are aware.

Children’s Climate Forum kicks off in Copenhagen

The forum is a collaboration between UNICEF, the City of Copenhagen and 22 Danish school classes acting as hosts for the visiting children.

Many of the child delegations represent ‘at risk’ countries, particularly vulnerable to climate change, such as Konduani Joe Banda from Zambia, a country struggling with droughts and heavy rain falls.

“The effects of climate change have been taking place gradually over the last five years in Zambia. If the sea levels rise in other countries, we see floods in Zambia, resulting in the spread of disease. Rain falls are also happening at the wrong time, and the country suffers under deforestation,” explains Mr. Banda.

After the forum, the children are to educate other children in their home countries on climate change issues.

And what is the message from the children to the adults at COP15, so far?

“Children are the grass roots of all nations, so if our opinion is taken into consideration it can affect the world at large. My message to the negotiators is less talk, more action. We want to see that the conference actually has an impact,” concludes Mr. Banda.

Carbon-free Kids

2009-11-30T13:21:00.000-08:00

Pretty interesting initiative from a high school student, Ruthie Gopin. Their carbonfreekids.net website seems be down and facebook page sparse but they have a nice video of the founder summarizing her thoughts.

Ruthie Gopin, the Founder of Carbon-Free Kids

Book: Hope for a Heated Planet

2009-11-29T18:33:00.000-08:00

I had an opportunity to listen to an old hand in environmental movement, Robert Musil, former Executive Director and CEO of Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR), on changing alignments in the climate change battle. Please see the links below for the book and the talk.

He wrote to a book to document the grassroots efforts in the US such as

1. 10000+ students' lobbying efforts at congress
2. 1000s of church gatherings
3. Hundreds of cities going carbon neutral
4. 30+ governors committing to Kyoto targets
5. Companies being forced to leave US chamber

He talks about ground-level changes compared to Kyoto:

1. Change in attitudes that is bringing/forcing politicians on board
2. Splintered business community now vs. solid opposition
3. Buildup of public opinion first before a deal is struck vs. Al Gore's last minute parachuting to sign the deal without public backing
4. Military as a new bedfellow arguing the national security side of the issue
5. High quantity and quality of engagement from youth across the world

Overall he is cautiously optimistic. Listening to him gave me a perspective on how far things have come.

Hope for a Heated Planet: How Americans Are Fighting Global Warming and Building a Better Future (also from Rutgers University Press)

Rejecting cries of gloom and doom, Hope for a Heated Planet shows how the fight against global warming can be won by the grassroots efforts of individuals. Robert K. Musil, who led the Nobel Peace Prize–winning organization Physicians for Social Responsibility, explains that a growing new climate movement can produce unprecedented change—in the economy, public health, and home—while saving the planet.

Musil draws on personal experience and compelling data in this practical and rigorous analysis of the causes and cures for global warming. The book presents all the players in the most pressing challenge facing society today, from the massive fossil fuel lobby to the enlightened corporations that are joining the movement to “go green.” Musil thoroughly explains the tremendous potential of renewable energy sources—wind, solar, and biofuel—and the startling conclusions of experts who say society can do away entirely with fossil fuels. He tells readers about the engaged politicians, activists, religious groups, and students who are already working together against climate change.

But the future depends, Musil insists, on what changes ordinary citizens make. Through personal choices and political engagement, he shows how readers can cut carbon emissions and create green communities where they live. With practical and realistic solutions, Hope for a Heated Planet inspires readers to be accountable and enables them to usher in an age of sustainability for future generations.

Podcast: Our Role in Combating Climate Change - Talk at the World Affairs Council of Northern California

Members of civil society do not have a seat at the upcoming climate treaty negotiations in Copenhagen, yet the issue of climate change affects us all. Looking at the causes and potential cures for global warming, Robert Musil sees hope in the role of the individual. He argues that it is efforts of a growing grassroots movement of engaged citizens that will ultimately decide the course of the climate challenge. Through personal choices and political engagement, he explores how we can cut carbon emissions and produce unprecedented change across sectors. Musil was the Executive Director and CEO of Nobel Peace Prize–winning organization Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) and helped launch PSR’s environmental program in the early 1990s.

Links for Nov 28, 2009

2009-11-28T10:11:00.000-08:00

Harper to face pressure on climate at Commonwealth meet. Yep, this is the same Canada the lectures the world about rights, whales and corruption. There is proposal to exclude Canada from the Commonwealth

Copenhagen conference: India, China plan joint exit. This is tragic. The mistrust is legitimate but they need the deal more than others.

'The World Wants a Real Deal' - Global Day of Action from TckTckTck campaign.

Turmoil in the Australian Parliament questions climate legislation. Novel.

Climate Thoughts

Thoughts on climate activism

2009-11-28T09:51:00.000-08:00

Solve Climate has a fascinating article detailing the growing activism across the world. This is similar and related to activism on fair trade, wildlife protection, iraq, water privatization etc. There are several important things to notice here about this kind of activism:

It is global. The level of coordination in terms of scale is high. Roughly 9M people signed up to tcktcktck campaign.
It is relentless. Everyday and hour there is something or other somewhere.
It is strategic in terms of methods and timing.
It is in visible. It is in your face and you cant miss it. Roughly 20K people are gathering in Copenhagen, and there are four parallel events happening.
It understands money. While they work the politics, they are working on altering the economics as well.
It understands communication. They are bringing the best of strategic communication to the table which make it hard to fight.

The challenge to global political and economic decision makers has never been higher, I think. People have talked about information and knowledge societies for a long time now. We are beginning to what it looks like and can see power structures being altered in real time.

I think at the core is a desire in people for change, and people are using their knowledge and skills to shared problems outside the government and business context. They see too much of wars, greed, destruction of life and property, concentration of power, rights violations etc. They are participating whenever there is an opportunity. I myself worked on a campaign to get Coke to control its water usage and education in India. I was surprised by my own 'reach' in the system.

Climate Activism Soars Planetwide

At Ambrose's office on Wednesday, another group of protesters was drawing attention to the tar sands industry's contribution to global climate change, Kinder said. A youth-produced video out of Canada this week, The Tar Sands Blow, also urges Harper to stop the expansion of the tar sands, or oil sands, which it calls "the greatest mistake we've made."

In Australia, 200 climate protesters blocked the entrance of parliament, calling for deep cuts from the Rudd government before 130 of them were arrested by police and taken away.

In Indonesia, protesters from Greenpeace chained themselves to four cranes at a paper mill on the island of Sumatra. Their goal was to highlight the role that deforestation plays in global warming.

The Washington, D.C.-based 1Sky campaign is organizing what its calling a "creative action" on Dec. 4 in front of the White House with images reflecting the urgency of the climate challenge.

How Climate Change is Changing Lobbying

2009-11-28T09:26:00.000-08:00

This blog is fundamentally about tracking events in the journey to low carbon economy. This is, I think, a significant event.

This article from October but is talking about how this act of leaving a large and influential lobby group like US Chamber of Commerce is unprecedented. Companies are reading the future differently, and some like Apple are betting on a carbon-scarce future. This is indicative of two things: first, it has become unacceptable to be seen as global warming denier, and second, the business coalition for status quo is weakening every day. There will probably be a tipping point down the line - watch for it.

Exit Through Lobby by James Surowiecki, Newyorker Magazine

Last Monday, Apple announced that it would be quitting the U.S. Chamber of Commerce because of the Chamber’s opposition to global-warming legislation. And that was just the latest in a series of defections: in the past few weeks, the public-utility companies Pacific Gas & Electric, PNM Resources, and Exelon all announced that they’d be leaving the Chamber, while Nike quit the organization’s board of directors. Historically speaking, this is a positive exodus.

...

Why the difference? Partly, it may be a matter of self-interest; Exelon, for instance, has big investments in renewable energy. But it may reflect a calculation that global warming is simply too big an issue to get wrong, both economically—few companies are really going to benefit from the melting of the polar ice caps—and from a public-relations point of view.

It concludes with a strong statement

global warming isn’t just bad for the planet; it’s bad for business.

Mercury News, among others, has reported on this:

"Apple is committed to protecting the environment and the communities in which we operate around the world," Catherine Novelli, Apple's vice president of worldwide government affairs, said in a letter to Thomas Donahue, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce president and CEO. "We strongly object to the Chamber's recent comments opposing the EPA's effort to limit greenhouse gases."

The move comes amid efforts by Apple to burnish its green image. The Cupertino-based company revealed its carbon footprint — or total greenhouse-gas emissions — for the first time last month, announcing on its Web site that 53 percent of the 10.2 million tons of annual carbon emissions it takes responsibility for comes from consumer use of its products.

The company has taken a broad view of greenhouse gas emissions, using a "life-cycle analysis" to calculate greenhouse gas emissions for each product, from production to transportation, consumer use and recycling.

"We believe it has resulted in the broadest possible measure of the carbon footprint for each of our new products," Apple said in response to a lengthy questionnaire by the Carbon Disclosure Project, which publishes emissions data for the world's largest corporations. "No other electronics company reports this information at the product level, but we think they should."

Shipping industry gets moving

2009-11-27T16:47:00.000-08:00

I came across this interesting two-month old posting by David Hone, Shell on how shipping industry is reacting. Realizing that their emissions will be included in the discussion, they are moving to stave off tougher regulations/mandates. They are setting up a private trading system exclusively for shipping-related emissions. I am not a strong believer in industry self-governance but it is an interesting question as to what makes shipping-related carbon market different from others? Should each industry be allowed to setup its own system?

David Hone
Climate Change Advisor for Shell

Hello and welcome to my blog. There's lots said about why climate change now confronts us, and what it means, but the real issue is what to do about it. Plenty is said about that too, but there's not enough discussion on the practical aspects of implementation. Focusing on energy, that's what my blog sets out to achieve

Shipping makes a move

The announcement comes in the form of a discussion document released by the British, Australian, Belgian, Norwegian and Swedish ship owners associations. The document clearly outlines the issue and challenges, spells out the advantages of a trading approach and then outlines two different constructions for a possible system. At this stage the document doesn’t discuss the scale of reductions, but I don’t think that is important right at this moment. Rather, the industry is taking a major step into the policy arena with a view to charting its own course foward (pun intended, sorry).

Guide to Copenhagen Negotiations

2009-11-27T10:23:00.000-08:00

I was looking for some explanatory kind of document that will give me insight into the negotiations at Copenhagen - the process, what makes it hard, what are the politics and personalities etc.

Comprehending Copenhagen: a guide to the international climate change negotiations from the Lowy Insitute, Australia.

From 7-18 December, the world’s attention will be focused on Copenhagen, where representatives of 192 nations will gather in an attempt to strike a new international agreement to respond to the urgent challenge of global climate change. In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Greg Picker and Fergus Green aim to demystify the negotiations and deepen public understanding of this important process. From the expansion of international carbon markets to proposals for curbing tropical deforestation, the paper elucidates the key issues to be negotiated in Copenhagen and outlines the positions of the various countries and groups to each issue. The paper also explains the Conference’s processes, weighs the likely outcomes and considers its potential implications for Australia and beyond.

It might be easier to listen to the presentation by the authors instead.

Just as an example, this is the timetable of the negotiation:

Broadly, negotiations at Copenhagen will likely follow a pattern familiar from previous COPs. The keysteps in the process will likely be as follows:
Several days before the negotiations formally commence there will be both formal meetings on specific issues between parties and closed meetings of negotiating blocs to fine-tune positions and respond to the latest intelligence.
The first two days will contain a mix of ceremonial fanfare (formally launching the conference), administrative discussions (agreeing the agenda and organising the work schedule) and substantive grandstanding (introductory statements by countries in large plenary meetings with several thousand participants).
Typically, by the second day, the subsidiary bodies will have their opening plenaries – with up to 1500 people present – involving a similar mix of ceremony, process and substance of an introductory nature. In Copenhagen, however, this step may be skipped or truncated. The current agreement is that the permanent subsidiary bodies will meet in the first week, and adhoc working groups will meet until midway through the second week. It is also possible that a 'Committee of the Whole' may be formed through which all issues are addressed.
Regardless of the structure of meetings for the subsidiary bodies, by Wednesday 9 December, small group negotiations will commence. Typically, these will be closed meetings. Dozens of different types of these groups will be formed (including 'contact groups', 'informals', 'informal informals', 'friends of the chair' and 'friends of the president') resulting in literally hundreds of negotiating meetings (not counting the truly informal negotiations that happen over a quiet cup of coffee or glass of wine). Small group negotiations will continue until no later than Tuesday 15 December.
On Monday 14 and Tuesday 15 December, large plenary meetings will be held to agree formally to any issue that has been tentatively agreed in small group negotiations.
Typically, ministers arrive and become engaged on the Tuesday or Wednesday of the second week (15 to 16 December). However, given the importance of the Copenhagen meeting, the current expectation is that ministers will arrive and begin working on the weekend of 12 and 13 December. The ministerial segment will not conclude until the COP ends. While there will be public statements by countries, the real work of the negotiations will happen in increasingly small ministerial meetings as the week draws to a close. Unusually, a large number of prominent political leaders and heads of state will be attending the negotiations in Copenhagen. They will likely arrive after ministers and can be expected to be engaged in even higher level negotiations as the conference comes to an end.
While the COP is scheduled to conclude on Friday 18 December, it is virtually inconceivable that it will do so. Negotiations in Bali and Kyoto did not conclude until well into the weekend.
Copenhagen will conclude when there is a closing plenary that has formally endorsed all elements of the agreement and countries have had an opportunity to express their views on the proceedings. Closing plenaries tend to be long, fraught affairs and are, even at the best of times, the source of much drama. With so much at stake, the closing plenary at Copenhagen will be one to remember.

Changing Business Attitudes towards Climate Change

2009-11-26T11:48:00.000-08:00

I have been studying the changing business attitude towards climate change. Initially there was resistance, then acceptance, cooperation, and now increasing excitement. It is discussed in U.S. Business Strategies and Climate Change paper from Wilson Center. The paper talks about the role of science, concerns about reputation, and the potential of new markets. I would add shareholders have become sensitive of all these as well. In Risking Shareholder Value? ExxonMobil and Climate Change, the shareholders of Exxon accuse the company of risking reputation and missing opportunities. Organizations such as Investor Network on Climate Risk are driving changes at the systemic level.

McKinsey Quarterly report from 2008:

First, there will be efforts to optimize the carbon efficiency of existing
assets and products: infrastructure (buildings, power stations, data centers,
factories), supply chains, and finished goods (automobiles, flat-screen
TVs, PCs). This optimization will involve measures to improve energy effi-
ciency, as well as a shift to less carbon-intensive sources of power, such
as nuclear, wind, solar, and geothermal.
Second, demand is growing for new low-carbon solutions that can meet
the need for sustained, drastic emission reductions. Value chains that disrupt
existing industries and create new ones will spring up—industries based,
for instance, on the large-scale supply of biomass to power plants and on
second-generation biofuels. New business models that reward suppliers
and end users in the power and transport sectors for consuming less energy
will be as important as new technologies.
Third, public policy and the widespread belief that higher energy prices
are here to stay are driving both of these developments. The coming economy-
wide discontinuity may be the first one driven largely by regulation.

Messaging and Branding around Climate Change

2009-11-26T11:24:00.000-08:00

I have been thinking about the use of language and emotions to discuss the issues around climate change. I was looking around to see if there are efforts and organizations in this space. I found some cutting edge thinking in terms of messaging and branding in this space. Check them out:

Futerra has some cool new thought pieces in this space:.

Born out of a desire to help communications professionals get their green messaging right, the guide identifies the top ten signs of Greenwash, reveals how Greenwashing has grown over the last years, addresses the question of why Greenwash matters and what you can do about it. Versions of the report are also available for the USA and in french.

10 Tips for Sustainability Communications
10 RulesThis is Futerra's bible. A postcard reminder of how to sell sustainability. Widely used and adopted by the UN's Environment Programme and elsewhere.

Rules of the Game

Futerra and The UK Department for Environment published the Rules of the Game on 7 March 2005. The game is communicating climate change; the Rules will help us win it. The document was created as part of the UK Climate Change Communications Strategy.

New Rules New Game

New rules: new game coverThe same type of concise document as the previous Rules - but this time for changing climate behaviours.

Communicating Sustainability

Communicating Sustainability coverFuterra, in partnership with the UN Environment Programme, published Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaigns in September 2005.

The guide showcases innovative campaigns from every continent which have succeeded in making people think or behave differently towards the environment. It has now been downloaded over 700,000 times from the UNEP website!

Words that Sell

Words that sell coverThis guide to the language of sustainability asks some hard questions. Based on valuable focus group research, Words That Sell identifies the good, the bad, and the ugly of green and ethical terminology.

The Compass Network

is a global exchange for knowledge and creativity in sustainability communications. It's a place to share, to learn and to meet like-minded people working towards the same goal.

They have an interesting document called Clean technology: tomorrow's brands:

Cleantech has been called the next Industrial Revolution and, if commentators are believed, will save the planet AND the economy. It could also produce the C21st's biggest and most recognisable brands. The report argues that developing a strong brand, as well as great technology, can help cleantech companies succeed, grow and win

Obama goes to Copenhagen!

2009-11-25T11:19:00.000-08:00

Woohoo!

Obama Announces 2020 Emissions Target, Dec. 9 Copenhagen Visit

President Obama today unveiled key details of the U.S. negotiation position headed into next month's global warming talks in Copenhagen, including a provisional greenhouse gas emissions target for 2020 "in the range of 17 percent below 2005 levels" and a new itinerary that includes a personal appearance during the opening days of the U.N. conference.

The White House said Obama will put the 2020 target on the bargaining table "in the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies." Obama's emission goals closely parallel action on Capitol Hill, including the House-passed climate bill and a Senate measure that Democratic leaders hope can reach the floor with enough votes by next spring.
...
"This could be one hell of a global game changer with big reverberations here at home," said Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.). "For the first time, an American administration has proposed an emissions reduction target, and when President Obama lands in Copenhagen, it will emphasize that the United States is in it to win it. This announcement matches words with action."

Kerry, the Democrats' lead legislator on the Senate global warming bill, stressed that Obama's provision target is "contingent on the support of Congress" but still outlines a politically important path for both developed and developing nations to follow as they outline their own plans for reducing emissions.

"It lays the groundwork for a broad political consensus at Copenhagen that will strip climate obstructionists here at home of their most persistent charge, that the United States shouldn't act if other countries won't join with us," Kerry said. "It is an enormous shot in the arm for those of us working overtime to get a comprehensive bill passed in the Senate. And the fact that the president will attend the Copenhagen talks underscores that the administration is putting its money where its mouth is, putting the president's prestige on the line."

Worldwide views on Global Warming

2009-11-24T09:32:00.000-08:00

The detailed survey results are here World Citizens Demand Action at COP15.

Overview news report:
World first: global climate poll

Held in September, the 44 meetings of everyday citizens in 38 countries gave more than 4,400 randomly selected participants the chance to express their views on the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP15).

Ninety per cent of these participants thought reaching a global climate deal at the conference was a matter of urgency, and 89 per cent thought countries such as the USA, Australia and EU nations should commit to short-term emissions targets of 25 to 40 per cent or higher.

This shows a discrepancy between what the citizens want and what policy makers are prepared to deliver. In the lead up to COP15, Australia is currently proposing reductions of 14 per cent (by 2020 according to 1990 levels), the US is proposing a 2 per cent reduction, and the EU is proposing a 20-30 per cent reduction."[The survey] has given politicians a unique insight into the views of ordinary citizens from all corners of the world on the climate crisis," said Danish Minister of Climate Change and Energy and World Wide Views ambassador, Connie Hedegaard.

"It is a powerful signal to the politicians when citizens all over the world agree that action is urgent."

The consultation findings reflect a global consensus on six key issues: the need for strong policy, technology sharing between nations, an international climate change council, increased environmental awareness and education, improvements to climate change technology and the development of consumer incentives to encourage less carbon emissions.

Australian participants were most concerned with committing confidently at COP15 to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius through a legally binding global agreement. It seems likely that such a global accord will hinge on whether global leaders can forsake self-interest and agree to co-operate and share the economic burdens.

Of the 38 countries, China's citizens were least willing to introduce emissions cuts for fast-growing economies.

The Worldwide Views on Global Warming Experts Blogs has more detailed analysis. Not all is well:

The results showed a very strong expression of concern about global warming. There was an overwhelming sense of urgency for achieving a strong climate agreement. In addition there was a pungent message that national politicians heed the deal made in Copenhagen this December.
In my first glance at the data, perhaps the strongest result was that 89% participants affirmed that short term reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries be reduced by 25-40%. This will come as a shock to world leaders who are aiming at targets much lower than that in the immediate future.
At the same time within the aggregate results, there were some moderately worrisome themes.

1. Some 43% of participants world wide seemed to say that a rise of 2 degrees Centigrade or higher is actually permissible. Reading the same figures, it’s also true that 89% of participants overall said that no more than 2 degrees increase would be acceptable. [Is the glass half empty or half full?] From what I’ve read, even 2 degrees increase would spell disaster. Are people becoming acclimated (so to speak) to prospects for dreary future?

2. Another cloud on the horizon was that among some national groups, raising the price of fossil fuels was not uniformly popular. Some 32% of U.S. participants said no price rise was desirable. Evidently Americans want the Age of Happy Motoring to continue forever. A substantial number people in the groups from Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, and UK were also opposed to fuel price hikes.

3. Finally, I was interested in the data from question 2.4 about whether punitive sanctions should be applied. In the combined groups from the U.S.A., 29% said there should be no sanctions or only symbolic ones. This may be a residual expression of the feeling that rules and penalties made in international treaties don’t really apply to America.

I have my own concerns. Understanding the meaning of 2C increase is hard for scientists, forget common man. So not sure how asking people is going to help. Also politics gets mixed in. Chinese are legimately fearful that the west does not want it to prosper - thanks to 100 years of international conflicts and deals. At a recent LSE talk, Ed Miliband, UK Secretary for Energy and Climate Change, talks about the politics of climate change and how to frame it in terms of common good.

Update: Their policy report has a summary of results:

Make a deal at COP15
Keep the temperature increase below 2 degrees
Annex 1 countries should reduce emissions with 25-40 % or more by 2020
Fast-growing economies should also reduce emissions by 2020
Low-income developing countries should limit emissions
Give high priority to an international financial mechanism
Punish non-complying countries
Make technology available to everyone
Strengthen or supplement international institutions

US about to make a deal at COP15?

2009-11-23T20:45:00.000-08:00

One more piece of puzzle falling in place keeping the hopes of a deal alive.

May be Obama concluded a private deal with India (Prime minister Manmohan Singh is on state visit).

US to present emissions target before Copenhagen

The United States will announce a target for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions before the UN climate conference in Copenhagen, removing a major obstacle to a deal, officials have said.

"Countries will need to put on the table what they are willing to do on emissions," a senior administration official told journalists. "We expect that a decision will be made in the coming days."

The official refused to be drawn on specific numbers but indicated the US target would not differ much from levels mentioned in legislation before Congress.

A US House of Representatives bill, passed in June, calls for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and by 83 percent by 2050.

A slightly more ambitious bill before the Senate, but not due to be debated again until early next year, talks of a 20-percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2020.

The senior administration official said Obama could make a last-minute decision to attend the conference if "negotiations have proceeded sufficiently that going to Copenhagen would give a final impetus, a push, to the process."

Business coalition calls for firm CO2 treaty

2009-11-23T09:56:00.000-08:00

Continuing the momentum thread, this is from yet another business coalition. There is a consistency in what multiple of the business coalitions are asking for - clarity, commitment, and low uncertainty. They have accepted that carbon price and legislation is coming. They are trying to influence the course now.
Business coalition calls for firm CO2 treaty

The private sector investment needed to tackle climate change will not be made without a binding international deal on carbon emissions, according to the head of a big business coalition.

Lars Josefsson, chairman of Combat Climate Change, a group including BP, General Electric, Unilever and more than 60 other large companies, said business was ready to act but would not do so without a clear regulatory framework.

“The necessary investments will only be made when you have a binding treaty and legislation,” he said in an interview.

“Of the money required to implement a deal, the vast majority – about 80 per cent – will come from the private sector. That can only come when there is a stable legal framework.”

This coalition calls itself the 3C Initiative

Combat Climate Change (3C) is business leaders’ initiative endorsed and actively promoted by the top executives of 66 of the world’s largest corporations.

The main objective of 3C is to support the UNFCCC-led negotiation process to establish a new global agreement on climate change, and to mobilize companies and business leaders across the world to contribute knowledge, resources and leadership to this common goal.
...
At present 66 global companies including General Electric, Unilever, Citigroup, BP, Siemens, DTEK, Rusal, Reuters, Duke Energy, Gazprom, China Oil & Offshore Company, Volvo, Tata Power, HP and Vattenfall have joined our initiative!

UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

2009-11-23T09:41:00.000-08:00

I see this as a good sign of rubber hitting the road. It can help with reducing uncertainty and helping other countries draft similar plans.

I had an opportunity to listen (via podcast) to Ed Miliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change at LSE. He talks about this transition plan, his vision, and politics. Way to go.

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan

The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan plots how the UK will meet the 34 percent cut in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020, set out in the budget. We have already reduced emissions by 21 percent – equivalent to cutting emissions entirely from four cities the size of London.

Transforming the country into a cleaner, greener and more prosperous place to live is at the heart of our economic plans for 'building Britain’s future' and ensuring the UK is ready to take advantage of the opportunities ahead.

By 2020:
* More than 1.2 million people will be in green jobs.
* 7 million homes will have benefited from whole house makeovers, and more than 1.5 million households will be supported to produce their own clean energy.
* Around 40 percent of electricity will be from low-carbon sources, from renewables, nuclear and clean coal.
* We will be importing half the amount of gas that we otherwise would.
* The average new car will emit 40 percent less carbon than now.

Momentum building for Climate Risk Disclosure at SEC

2009-11-23T09:23:00.000-08:00

I talked about investors asking SEC to develop and implement disclosure rules on the climate front (Climate change disclosure & SEC).

That momentum is building.

Big investors push SEC to make companies disclose climate risks

Institutional investors managing more than $1 trillion in assets have asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to spell out the climate-related financial risks corporations should disclose on their financial forms.

U.S. and Canadian fund managers signing onto the petition included the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS); top state financial officers in Oregon, North Carolina, Connecticut, Maryland, New York and Florida; British Columbia Investment Management Corp.; the Laborers' International Union of North America; and Pax World Management Corp.

Their chief complaint is that the SEC requires public companies to disclose "material risks" to investors, but the agency has offered no guidance for reporting financial risks tied to global warming. The investor groups say there is a panoply of climate-related issues affecting long-term corporate finances, including a pending batch of greenhouse gas reporting requirements from U.S. EPA, worsening environmental conditions and the prospect that Congress will mandate reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

"Many companies haven't examined these risks," said CalPERS CEO Anne Stausboll in a statement. "The SEC should strengthen and enforce its current requirements so investors' decisions fully account for climate change's financial effects."

Whether or not SEC moves, states are moving forward.

Companies and the SEC have faced increasing pressure from shareholder groups, regulators and state attorneys general asking for more public disclosure of climate-related risks. On Thursday, the office of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) announced a settlement with AES Corp. that requires the utility giant to tell investors more about risks posed by climate change. Arlington, Va.-based AES owns 34 power plants in North America and is one of the biggest electricity companies in the world.

Under that agreement, AES must disclose in its 10-K SEC filings risks from "present and probable" climate-related regulations and legislation, litigation and the physical impact global warming could have on utility assets. The state reached similar settlements with power provider Dynegy Inc. and Xcel Energy last fall.

60 heads of state to attend Copenhagen

2009-11-22T18:10:00.000-08:00

Promising but a mixed bag.

Copenhagen climate summit: 60 heads of state to attend

Hopes for the Copenhagen climate summit in December have been boosted after it emerged that more than 60 presidents and prime ministers plan to attend.

There had been concern that no strong agreement would emerge from the talks in Copenhagen.

But observers say the presence of so many heads of state will radically increase expectations.

Copenhagen conference attracts world leaders

So far 65 heads of state and government have accepted Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen's invitation to attend December's UN climate change conference in the Danish capital.

Attending: Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom

Not attending: US, China, India

It is 60 or 65 depending on the source but the point is China and India are not attending. I understand the politics involved in such negotiations but the optics does not look good. The impact of climate change is the highest in these countries with the Himalayas receding. They also represent about 40% of the humanity.

Architects Call for Copenhagen Commitment

2009-11-22T12:01:00.000-08:00

Yet another stakeholder sees merit in the low carbon economy: Architects.

I strongly believe that design has a big role to play in process of adaptation and final state of the low carbon economy. Good design will help improve productivity and has financial benefits.

My own research work has been influenced by work of Christopher Alexander's Timeless Way of Building and The Nature of Order.

Architects Around the World Join Forces to Call for Copenhagen Commitment

The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA), Australian Institute of Architects, Architecture Canada and the Commonwealth Association of Architects joined forces to deliver a 15 point "Call for Action" at next month's United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen (COP15, 7-18 December 2009) in an effort to lobby world leaders to deliver an ambitious and effective international response to climate change.

They identify a set of principles that should be familiar to people following climate change issues:

- Recognition of the fundamental importance of the built environment as central to the international climate change mitigation and adaptation agenda.

- Binding emissions targets and a carbon price to drive market change - a price on carbon reflecting the true consequences of its use and complementary government policies and incentives facilitating the competiveness of sustainable design.

- Credible and verified measurement of built environment emissions, being an international standard of accounting for carbon emissions.

- Innovative and pre-emptive design and adaptation of the built environment in response to unavoidable impacts of climate change.

- Partnerships between developing and developed economies to share information regarding sustainable design and technologies.

- Enabling policy - whether market mechanisms, government policy, private sector initiatives or voluntary action.

- Incentives to drive innovation and reward greater sustainability in the built environment.

- Investment in pilot projects to trial and demonstrate innovative approaches to built environment models.

- Risk management in the face of climate uncertainties - future scenarios, including the threat of peak oil and sea level rise, should be factored into the way built environments are conceived and planned.

- A concerted program to improve existing building stock to encourage positive change, including energy efficient refurbishment and retrofitting, as well sustainable design for new buildings.

Climate change and Middle East

2009-11-22T11:36:00.000-08:00

Triggered by the news of Deutsche Bahn's contract in Qatar to build urban mass transit system, I looked around for information on whats happening in the middle east on the climate change front. A couple of pieces of information:

Impact of climate change on Middle East and North African region (MENA) from the World Bank:
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa Region

According to the latest IPCC assessment, the climate is predicted to become even hotter and drier in most of the MENA region. Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation will increase the occurrence of droughts, an effect that is already materializing in the Maghreb. It is further estimated that an additional 80–100 million people will be exposed by 2025 to water stress, which is likely to result in increased pressure on groundwater resources, which are currently being extracted in most areas beyond the aquifers’ recharge potential. In addition, agriculture yields, especially in rainfed areas, are expected to fluctuate more widely, ultimately falling to a significantly lower long-term average. In urban areas in North Africa, a temperature increase of 1-3 degrees could expose 6–25 million people to coastal flooding. In addition, heat waves, an increased “heat island effect,” water scarcity, decreasing water quality, worsening air quality, and ground ozone formation are likely to affect public health, and more generally lead to challenging living conditions.

Global models predict sea levels rising from about 0.1 to 0.3 meters by the year 2050, and from about 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100. For MENA, the social, economic, and ecological impacts are expected to be relatively higher compared to the rest of the world. Low-lying coastal areas in Tunisia, Qatar, Libya, UAE, Kuwait, and particularly Egypt are at particular risk.

News from Cop15
Global warming to have heavy impact on Arab states

The effects include depletion of agricultural land, spread of disease and endangerment of many plant and animal species, the 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development forecasts.

Global warming will have a severe impact on Arab states where water is already scarce, a regional report warned Thursday ahead of next month's Copenhagen environment summit.

Some of the most feared effects include depletion of agricultural land, spread of disease and endangerment of many plant and animal species, the 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development said.

The AFED report, released in Beirut, said sea level rise will mostly threaten Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Tunisia, affecting "one to three percent of land in these countries."

In Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, more than 12 percent of the country's best agricultural land in the Nile Delta is at risk from sea level rise, or SLR.

AFED Report Presented in Abu Dhabi

The report, compiled by independent experts, estimated that in the Arab region as a whole, the cost of environmental degradation is estimated at 5 % of gross domestic product (GDP). The report also highlights that the governments of the region have failed in addressing these mounting economic costs with clear and effective policies.

However, the report commended the environmental work carried out in Abu Dhabi, describing the Abu Dhabi Emirate Environment Strategy 2009-2013, adopted by the Emirate, as a "model" and called on Arab countries to follow this model and praised the clean energy initiative ‘Masdar,' which was launched by Abu Dhabi Government.

More about AFED:

The Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED)

The Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) is a not-for-profit regional non-governmental organization, grouping experts together with the civil society, business community and media, to promote prudent environmental policies and programmes across the Arab region. While it maintains its character as a non-governmental organization, AFED admits, in the capacity of observers, national, regional and international bodies working in the fields of environment and sustainable development.

CO2 Reduction Commitments at Copenhagen

2009-11-21T14:21:00.000-08:00

Flow of pledges drives up UN expectations
Apart from the US, all industrialized countries have given targets for their greenhouse gas emission reductions. This promises a successful conference in Copenhagen next month, according to UN’s top official on climate change.

Some of the announced commitments:

Country/Region	Commitment
Russia	25% drop from 1990 level
South Korea	30% drop from expected emissions in 2020 (~4% below 2005)
Brazil	Freeze at 2005 levels (no growth)
EU	30 percent reduction target from 1990 levels by 2020
US	House 17% and Senate 20% reduction from 2005 levels by 2020

Green Hajj

2009-11-21T13:17:00.000-08:00

The journey to low carbon economy has just gotten a boost. Just imagine the symbolic value of holiest city in Islam, Mecca, going enviro-green - that too in the heart of the oil kingdom. Remember that the Saudi Arabian king's official title is The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. Idea is in proposal stage but it is a very bold proposal.

ISLAM’S GREEN INITIATIVE

Under the newfound coalition toward eco-commitment and a Muslim Seven Year Plan, Medina, Islam’s second most important city after Mecca, is to serve as a model green city. This move is critical since Saudi Arabia is essentially, for better or worse, presently the pillar of the Arab nations.
Medina, "The City of the Prophet", is a strategic start pointing that has the capacity to really launch a green campaign in neighboring territories.
The Seven Year Plan was presented by the Sheikh Ali Goma'a, Egypt’s Grand Mufti, who has already introduced the plan into his own city of Dar Al Iftaa. Some key initiatives of the Seven Year Plan include:

* Develop and implement a "Green Hajj". With 2-3 million people visiting Mecca during Hajj alone, transforming the experience into an environmentally-friendly pilgrimage will reap immediate benefits.

* Construct a "green mosque" and introduce this model for other Islamic buildings worldwide.

* In the first phase, develop 2-3 green model cities; in the second phase, adapt ten other Muslim cities to implement the model.

* Integrate eco-awareness into Islamic education.

* Publish "green Qurans", printed on paper procured from sustainable wood.

* Create a specialized TV channel focused on Islam and the environment.

* Create award and prize systems for excellence in this field.

The ultimate goal here, as with other faith groups, is to radically redefine faith-based relationships with the environment. While the "greenie" movement is still seen as a secular front by a number of conservative groups, the world’s oldest religions with a following in the billions will be able to bring much needed attention and authority to an issue that has predated our recognition of it.

Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC) is driving the initiative.

CRU Hack and Research Process

2009-11-21T12:41:00.000-08:00

Climate sceptics claim leaked emails are evidence of collusion among scientists

Hundreds of emails and documents exchanged between world's leading climate scientists stolen by hackers and leaked online

Hundreds of private emails and documents allegedly exchanged between some of the world's leading climate scientists during the past 13 years have been stolen by hackers and leaked online, it emerged today.

The computer files were apparently accessed earlier this week from servers at the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, a world-renowned centre focused on the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change.

Climate change sceptics who have studied the emails allege they provide "smoking gun" evidence that some of the climatologists colluded in manipulating data to support the widely held view that climate change is real, and is being largely caused by the actions of mankind.

Folks at Real Climate are in the best position to address the specific details. I will only comment on the research process.

Science has built in uncertainty. If there is no risk, there is no science. The hypotheses, experiment, and conclusion may all be "wrong". Science proceeds by continuously refining all the three. Every result should be considered tentative (except may be mathematical proofs). It is routine to say previous work X made wrong assumption Y, we corrected for it and got result Z.

Research into complex systems such as the atmosphere is difficult, time consuming, and often fragile because we have limited knowledge. By their very nature, the results have to be tested and retested constantly. From all that I understand, IPCC has been doing an excellent job verifying as much data as possible and continuously, and in being conservative in its claims. But uncertainty simply cannot be eliminated in such spaces.

It seems to come down to three things - outlook (how you see the world), values (how you make your choices), and systems (how groups react).

Outlook. People are comfortable accepting the products of science such as the electricity, Internet and new drugs but cant accept it when the results are inconvenient. Either you accept science with its imperfections or not.

The world is getting only more complex over time due to advancements of science, and it is overwhelming. In such conditions, it is easier to cope with the world by sticking to some political, social, religious or other dogma instead of struggling with the reality as it is. I catch myself doing that all the time. The challenge is overcome the dogma and see the world as it is.

Values. This came across to me during the financial crisis. The crisis is not about subprime mortagages but rather about subprime culture. It is the attitude that it is fine to sacrifice somebody else's interests if it means enhancing personal interests. Everyone along the chain starting from the homeowner to the international investor had that attitude. The financial system as a result came to the brink of the collapse. I see this all the time in academics as well. There are no saints. The challenge is know where to draw the line as individuals and societies.

Systems. Asking for certainty is asking for the impossible. Reasonable people know that. It is trick. Then why does it happen? I think it is combination of marketing, confusion, fear, and ignorance. Who is doing it and why? It is the outcome of a battle between a large set of players (scientists, politicians, companies, non-profits) for the common man's mindshare. From a systemic point of view, each has their set of institutions, resources, and interests. They are trying to preserve, and enhance their interests. Because the direction will determine the winners and losers - personally and as an organization - the fight is fierce. The timing of the leak is not an accident. The challenge is know at what point the institutions have to be changed to cope with the changed world.

Where does all this leave us? As I said in an ealier post (Climate Pact Postponed. A Crisis of Leadership.), if we dont have a medium to have the global conversations, a realistic framing of the problems, and willingness of people to compromise, social collapse is potential outcome. It is not impossible. Nature does not have any obligation to treat humans differently than other species.

30 Rock, Al Gore and Selling Green

2009-11-20T13:03:00.000-08:00

Fun day!

Since when did reducing carbon footprint become a worthy topic for sketch comedy?

30 Rock Goes Green, Al Gore Makes Cameo

As part of NBC's Green Week, many programs are incorporating environmental themes into their shows. On this week's 30 Rock, Jack Donaghy gives Kenneth the task of reducing TGS's carbon footprint by 5%.

and Al Gore as a popular comedian? I must be living in an alternate universe!

EV, national security and Shai Agassi

2009-11-19T12:25:00.000-08:00

In a previous blog post (Electrification Coalition: Adding momentum to EV deployment), I wondered about the emphasis on national security.

I went back and listened to Shai Agassi of Better Place from Nov 2008. He said a few things that were striking from a national security point of view.

First, that for a nation of the size of US, the idea that you have only a few days worth of oil storage is a national security issue - whether the world is a stable or not. There was never a serious way to address that risk, and EVs now make it possible at think about addressing the problem. This is validated by the fact that Israel - one of the countries with the greatest interest in oil - is the first country to go EV in a big way.

Second, the oil companies' business is about to change. I was aware of it but he said it in a way it brought home the point. Shai was asked about how oil companies would respond to electricification. He asked what would the CEO of Exxon say in 2017 to its share holders? They cant possibly say 'it was a good ride, thank you!'. They have dwindling reserves, and new reserves are harder and more expensive to get to. Shai reminded that oil companies are in energy business - they are selling fuel-miles. Oil companies could have life beyond oil too.

Third, when asked about how detroit companies would respond. He smiled and said they get the idea that they have to change. He pointed out that Detroit successfully retooled themselves in early 40s. When the companies pushed back, FDR simply said 'fall in line' and forced them to comply. For almost 3 years during the 40s, Detroit didnt make any cars at all. So from a jobs point of view, it can be done. It is painful and the signal must be clear (my paraphrasing). Elsewhere at Copenhagen Business Council's meeting, he said that by 2020, the largest car manufacturer might very well be Chinese and not American or German. There is the issue of loss of competitiveness in an international market.

He argued that approaches such as rideshare is really in the taxi business and not in the personal car business. He wants new business models in the car industry where you get a car for free (like razor) and sell battery-based fuel-miles for a price (like blades). Anybody can provide the fuel miles - whether it is exxon or wind power. He talked about about how he is happy to consume energy at a higher price 10c/KWH and higher uncertainty provided by Wind energy (compared 5c/KWH of coal) because the value created elsewhere is higher.

Overall highly recommended.

Water Disclosure Project

2009-11-19T09:47:00.000-08:00

Some days back I talked about the Carbon Disclosure Project. There is a new project from the same folks.

Water Disclosure Project
Carbon reporting group launches Water Disclosure Project

Having encouraged over 2,500 companies to measure and report on their carbon footprint, the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) will today launch a new initiative designed to repeat the trick with firms' water footprints.

The group, which is backed by 475 institutional investors, will announce that from next year it is to send questionnaires on water use to approximately 300 of the world’s largest corporations in water intensive sectors such as chemicals, consumer goods, food and beverage, mining, forestry, pharmaceuticals, power generation and semiconductor manufacturing.

Emulating the model pioneered the Carbon Disclosure Project, firms will be asked to detail their water use, water management and improvement plans, and the risk and opportunities presented by water use across their supply chains. The results will then be made available to institutional investors and summarised in an annual report to be published in late 2010.

Paul Dickinson, chief executive of the CDP said there was a strong commercial case for businesses to pay greater attention to water risks. “If climate change is the shark, then water is its teeth and it is an issue on which businesses need far greater levels of awareness and understanding," he said. "CDP Water Disclosure will raise this awareness and drive companies to take action to mitigate risks and seize opportunities."

Investors also need to be aware if businesses are exposed to risks of water shortages or disruption, according to Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which is lead sponsor of CDP Water Disclosure project.

"As water becomes an increasingly constrained resource, it also becomes an investment issue," the company said in a statement. "It is vital that institutional investors have access to high quality information on how water-related risks threaten corporations, both directly and within their supply chains, in order to make better informed decisions and direct the flow of capital away from risks and towards solutions."

This is fascinating at multiple levels. Carbon was immediately followed by water. The carbon project is about reducing future problems but the water project is about today's problems. Water will be the basis for many national and sub-national conflicts. I myself was involved once in the past in campaigning against Coke bottling plant in India for its abuse of underground water. However I felt at that time and now that the effort was anti-something but not enough pro-something else. Also that the water not priced right resulting in misuse. This database will enable coordination of pricing, conservation efforts across countries, and development of new business models, services, and projects across national boundaries. At a recent meeting Arnold Schwarznegger mentioned that 20% of the California energy is spent moving water around. A reduction in water consumption will reduce the energy need as well.

Is low carbon world also a water efficient world?

Electrification Coalition: Adding momentum to EV deployment

2009-11-18T14:51:00.000-08:00

A new lobby group has formed with some heavyweights to push for the EV deployment.

The Electrification Coalition

The Electrification Coalition is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit group of business leaders committed to promoting policies and actions that facilitate the deployment of electric vehicles on a mass scale in order to combat the economic, environmental, and national security dangers caused by our nation’s dependence on petroleum.

The Coalition seeks to achieve its goals through a combination of public policy research and the education of policymakers, opinion leaders, and the public. Equipped with exceptional research and analysis, these prominent business executives bring credibility, insight, and objectivity to the debate over electrification.

Look at members of this group:

Timothy E. Conver,AeroVironment, Inc. - Manufacturer (EV/UAVs)
Peter L. Corsell, GridPoint, Inc. - Smartgrid software vendor
David W. Crane, NRG Energy, Inc. - Enginnering/operations
Kevin Czinger, Coda Automotive - EV manufacturer
Peter A. Darbee, PG&E Corporation - Utility
Seifi Ghasemi, Rockwood Holdings, Inc. - Manufacturing, materials
Carlos Ghosn, Nissan Motor Company, Ltd. - EV manufacturer
Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers - VC
Richard Lowenthal, Coulomb Technologies, Inc. - EV charging
Alex A. Molinaroli, Johnson Controls- Equipment manufacturer
Reuben Munger, Bright Automotive, Inc. - Vehicle design
Frederick W. Smith, FedEx Corporation - Logistics
David Vieau, A123 Systems, Inc. - Battery manufacturer

They have an electrification roadmap, if you wish to look at.

The Electrification Roadmap is a comprehensive report that outlines a vision for a fully integrated electric drive network in the united states. The report examines the challenges facing electrification, including battery technology and cost, infrastructure financing, regulatory requirements, electric power sector interface, and consumer acceptance issues. The Roadmap provides policymakers and business leaders with a framework for overcoming these challenges in order to drive meaningful reductions in u.s. oil dependence.

A few observations . First, people are taking the fight to the political level/public discourse now. The potential winners (GE/transportation/software etc.) are bracing for a show of force with potential losers (coal, oil etc.). Second, the coalition is still small. Only some are heavyweights - FedEx, PG&E, Nissan, and Johnson controls. Third, they are playing up, possibly for strategic reasons, the national security angle. They are likely being advised by the best of the messaging talent that exists out there. This strikes me a way to split the subset of lawmakers who are both market and security hawks.

The march to low carbon economy continues....

What sound should EVs make?

2009-11-17T09:56:00.000-08:00

I see this "mundane" issue as an indication of EV market is in scaling up mode. As nobel laureate Philip Anderson said, "quantity changes quality". As the number of EVs increases many such hidden problems will be revealed and solved.

Now that we have an opportunity to control the sounds, what could we do differently? What all information could you convey to pedestrians through sounds? I can think of a few - size of vehicle, speed, hazardous material load, emergency or not, ownership status (stolen or not), zones etc. The challenge is to simplify it to such an extent that there is only a small amount of information that the common person needs to remember. Or may be these noises will be conveyed to some hand held device that the common person can carry or is widely available that simply suggests an action based on some internal logic - start, stop, move away etc. The good thing about such a device is that the sounds can be in a spectrum that we dont hear and we dont need to.

Now you can hear electric cars coming

HALOsonic technology makes electric vehicles sound more like spaceships or sports cars - which should make roads safer for people with visual impairments

As electric vehicles (EVs) become part of our lives – both Nissan and Mitsubishi will have models on sale here within the next year, and charging points are being installed by local authorities around the country – one safety issue is becoming urgent. Unlike, say, an electric milk float, EVs are astonishingly silent, with just the wheel rumble and an occasional electric whine to alert you to their approach. The Royal National Institute of Blind People has been raising awareness of the risk; legislation is likely to follow soon.

All this is wonderful news for Lotus Engineering, which has been working for two years on a system to mimic engine noises. With the help of Harman International – which specialises in car sound systems – it came up with an electronic device that is wired into the engine and follows the revs to produce a synthetic engine noise.

So how does it sound? In the end Harman synthesised a number of alternatives, including a Prius in petrol-powered mode, the purring of an Aston Martin's supercharged V8, the tiger's roar of a Ferrari V12 engine, and the four-cylinder boxer engine you might find in an Alfa Romeo. And just for good measure, they added two spaceship sounds: rising and gently descending.

Larry Summers: Shaping the Next Economic Expansion

2009-11-16T09:34:00.000-08:00

This is a recent talk by Larry Summers, National Economic Council Chair. There is not a whole lot of new information but tells you where the administration is in terms of thought process.

He is mulling about what would be the source of growth. He talks about three things - energy, internet, and health. Having spent many years in the Internet space, it is not clear to me what substantial gain Internet investment in new bandwidth can bring. It is not clear that increased bandwidth is necessary or sufficient for creation of new value. I can see new value being created in mobility. If the mobile carriers free up handsets and applications, I can see lots of new applications being built. Healthcare is a harder problem. The current approach which involves backroom no-pain deals with HMOs and PHARMA is pretty much status quo or worse. The incentives are pretty much the same as before (Hear these great reports from the trenches in This American Life - More is Less Somebody Else's Money. They tell you why the health care reform may be non-trivial). That leaves energy and environment. There are major challenges in energy including the fact that the politics is broken and the product cannot be easily measured in many cases. He talks about the need to reduce uncertainty. A floor on the carbon or gas price will be necessary for anybody to consider investing.

“Shaping the Next Economic Expansion”
Lawrence H. Summers
New York Economic Club
October 29, 2009

How, then, to think about economic recovery that is not driven by unsustainable consumer borrowing and spending or by the public sector?

By the logic of national income accounting, it depends on three things. It depends on private sector investment, it depends on exports, and it depends on income growth that can support consumer spending increases. Let me say a little bit about each of those three things.
...
Given that capacity utilization is at very low levels, it is inevitable that private investment will lag for some time to come in some parts of the economy. But in a variety of other spheres, private investment will be profoundly important for the next economic expansion. That is why the President has emphasized measures that support the availability of credit for small businesses. That is why the public sector is playing a crucial role during this period in the financing of new houses.
....
Two cutting-edge sectors for the American economy at this juncture are, first, energy and the environment and, second, information technology.

We are currently working with Congress on major cap-and-trade and energy legislation to build on the substantial steps contained in the Recovery Act to support both energy efficiency and renewable energy as well as more efficient and effective exploitation of our traditional energy resources.

Turning over the capital stock more rapidly to meet environmental and energy independence objectives can be a significant contributor to aggregate demand in the short and medium term, even in the presence of significant unused capacity.

Certainty as to the likely price tag for energy can also be a spur to investment. It has been demonstrated again and again that the greatest barrier to long-term investment decisions is residual uncertainty. If we are able to resolve uncertainties in the investment area, there is substantial scope for increased demand in this key sector.

Peakoil Contingency Planning Talk Goes Mainstream

2009-11-15T19:17:00.000-08:00

This is a small group but pretty influential - Virgin and Yahoo in UK. But the fact that they have publicly asked for a contingency plan is interesting. They mention 2013 as the year of the peak. There is an interesting alignment between Climate and Energy. Both require going green in a big way and fast!

Energy security body calls for 'urgent' review of impact of oil shortages

Virgin, Stagecoach and Yahoo among firms calling for measures to address economic dislocation from a sudden rise in oil prices....
An industry organisation that includes Virgin and Yahoo has called on the government to "urgently" reassess its dismissive view about the potential threat and impact of oil shortages.

The call from the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security comes after revelations in the Guardian that there is dissent inside the International Energy Agency (IEA) about how soon the world may run out of supplies.

It also comes alongside a petition to Number 10 which calls on Gordon Brown to take up the issue more seriously amid a growing number of reports that indicate the situation is more urgent than many believed.

The Wicks Review into energy issues, published in August on behalf of the Department of Energy and Climate Change, gave scant regard to peak oil issues.

Will Whitehorn, the taskforce chairman, who is also president of Virgin Galactic, Sir Richard Branson's space travel business, said: "Given the revelations from within the IEA, we hope the government will be urgently reviewing the complacent approach to peak-oil risk evident in the Wicks Review."

Other members of the taskforce include Scottish and Southern Energy, Stagecoach, the transport group, and Arup, the civil engineering consultancy. Work already undertaken by the taskforce has suggests that more needs to be done to prepare for the potential economic dislocation from a sudden huge rise in crude prices.

The report of this group is called The Oil Crunch. More about the group:

The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) is a group of British companies concerned that threats to energy security are not receiving the attention they merit.

The Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

The aim of our first report is to engage government more proactively on the peak oil threat, and also to alert the public to the problem. We aim to encourage collaborative contingency planning by government, industry, and communities on measures that can be taken to accelerate independent energy supply within the UK.

In preparing this report, we asked ourselves three related questions: How big is the risk from peak oil? How big is the alternative-energy opportunity? How do the two conflate?

Climate Pact Postponed. A Crisis of Leadership.

2009-11-15T15:52:00.000-08:00

APEC leaders: no climate change deal at Copenhagen

But at the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, Obama has joined the chorus of doubters that say that a global deal on cutting emissions won’t be reached at a key summit next month in Copenhagen. The 19 leaders agreed that the gap between rich and poor nations over what to do about global warming was too big to bridge in the next three weeks. The December meeting in Denmark would be an interim step to any final agreement.

World Leaders Put Off a Climate Change Treaty

in Copenhagen, diplomats will aim to reach a less aggressive — and much less specific — "politically binding" agreement, with the hope that hard numbers and legal obligations to reduce climate change would be added soon, in a two-step approach. "There was an assessment by the leaders that it was unrealistic to expect a full internationally legally binding agreement to be negotiated between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days," said Mike Froman, Obama's deputy national security adviser.

A lot of this can be explained using economics (powerful lobbies, coordination challenges) but thats an excuse. The governance systems are so broken that it will take a major shock to the system . At that point we may act constructively or follow societies of the past and collapse .

At the core is the failure of leadership and imagination. You dont need leadership when the problems are obvious. Post-katrina required an immediate response. Thats not a demonstration of leadership. It was too obvious. Leadership is required when there is uncertainty and leaders see problems as they are emerging. They take to the bully pulpit and sell both the problem and solution.

The response to the banking crisis is an indicator of leadership or the lack of it. There is no non-trivial problem for which there are only winners. There will always be winners and losers. The challenge for any leader is to be able to compel the losers to go along with the new order. It is done using whatever means available - buying, helping and punishing.

Leadership doesnt exist in vacuum. Citizens get the leadership they ask for - directly and indirectly.

It is easy to not act. The imperfectness of knowledge can be easily questioned. We can call environment policies standards (which people support) or regulations (which people oppose). No big deal. Too many smart people are in the business of selling ideas - however bad they may be. They package status quo well, use the right language, and visuals to encourage inaction. We see all the time how misaligned incentives can have major consequences.

Societies collapse for a reason. Societies collapse because we cant have the right conversations at the right time - the people are not ready, the medium doesnt exist, or the challenges unclear. We dont know if this moment is perfectly timed, but it definitely sounds like that from all that I have read until now. Yes, we have to act in the presence of imperfect understanding and information.

Where is the leadership? Where are the citizens?

Nissan Leaf Roadshow or The Age of Electric Drive has Begun

2009-11-14T13:23:00.000-08:00

I spent a couple of hours at the first roadshow of Nissan Leaf in Santa Monica. See the pictures below. A few thoughts:

First impression - very positive. It had a very elegant design, sober coloring, had wide enough body for comfortable seating. I couldnt see the inside of the hood or the boot. It didnt seem to have too much space in the back.

Quite a few people showed up. Almost 800 people RSVP'd to attend. Many others like me didnt RSVP but attended. People were of all backgrounds, old and young. There werent too many women but a few starting trickling in by the time I left.

This is set for release in Dec 2010. The first version will have 1000 cars. I signed up to testride end of next year when they release the car.

I had a little bit of fun. I interviewed a couple of regular folks on their attitudes towards this car. Environment as an issue is being discussed in the family, school and workplace. I also spoke to EV enthusiasts as well.

I gave a quick interview (!) to Nissan people on camera about why Leaf was the greatest thing since sliced bread and urged everyone to go electric.

Enjoy the slideshow!

Living Climate Change

2009-11-13T15:48:00.000-08:00

This is a very interesting series of sketches from IDEO that try to portray
a new way to live with climate change (conflict, higher energy prices etc.)

Living Climate Change

Check this sample:

Free Ride from IDEO on Vimeo.

How important is sustainability for businesses?

2009-11-12T16:46:00.000-08:00

Sloan Management Review (SMR) thinks it is important.

8 Reasons (You Never Thought Of) That Sustainability Will Change Management

1. Planning. It is inevitable. You will become news if you dont handle it.

2. Productivity. 16% improvement in productivity

3. Reputation A Proxy For Management Quality.

4. Strategy. You might learn something about your organization in this process.

5. Innovation. It might lead to increased pace and quality of innovation.

6. Coordination. It is necessary due to inter-disciplinary nature of the problem.

7. Partnering. Will increase trust in the partners.

8. Advantage First Adapters Will Win.

1 and 8 are reflective of changing mindsets and market place. These are basically externally imposed requirements. 2 has to do directly with the bottomline. Interestingly 3 is about the management's sensitivity to other people's perceptions. They want to be seen a good player. There is a bit about business interest too. Today it is hard to attract people to organizations that are not seen as good players and dont have open sharing culture. The rest are secondary or spillover effects that have value too.

What is Houston's future?

2009-11-09T22:01:00.000-08:00

Houston, we have a problem...in future. Not yet. I think this is
the kind of news we will see more often in future.

Big Oil's New Lean Look: 'Glory Days' May Be Over

But recent downsizing moves by Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips and other oil and gas companies appear to go beyond the typical bottom-of-the-cycle belt tightening.

They suggest a permanent shift toward doing more with less -- in what could be a troubling trend for Houston.

"The oil and gas industry in the Houston area has probably seen its peak in terms of, if you want to call it, its glory years," Allen Brooks, managing director at Parks Paton Hoepfl and Brown, a Houston investment bank that invests in the energy sector.

Last month, Shell said by year end it would cut 5,000 employees, or 10 percent of its global workforce, under a sweeping reorganization. ConocoPhillips -- after cutting 4 percent of its workforce this year -- is putting $10 billion in assets on the block to pay debts. BP, meanwhile, has cut more than 5,000 jobs worldwide under an ongoing turnaround, and major oil field services firms like Schlumberger and Halliburton have eliminated thousands more jobs this year.

While not all the job losses have been in Houston, the moves highlight a growing emphasis on getting lean to compete in a world where the costs and challenges of accessing new oil and gas reserves are rising each year.
...
Some oil and gas jobs will inevitably return as the recession lifts and global energy demand rebounds. And Houston will remain a key hub of activity, buoyed in coming years by deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico, increasing activity in natural gas shale plays in North America and other work.

But other jobs may never come back to Houston, the casualties of a shrinking workplace, technology improvements and a shifting focus from North America to oil-rich areas of Africa, the Middle East and South America.

"How rapidly we decline," Brooks said, "is open to a lot of debate."

One factor could be the fate of climate change legislation in Congress, which could add costs to oil and gas producers, refiners, chemical makers and other parts of the energy sector, forcing them to cut jobs, Susan Combs, Texas comptroller of public accounts said.

"I think there's a big bull's-eye painted on Houston," she said.

Are we post-peak? IEA whistleblowers say so.

2009-11-09T21:36:00.000-08:00

This is explosive if further substantiated.

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

Nature of Carbon Markets

2009-11-07T15:28:00.000-08:00

I just started looking at it and came across this somewhat dated but fascinating article.

A collapsing carbon market makes mega-pollution cheap

As recession slashes output, companies pile up permits they don't need and sell them on. The price falls, and anyone who wants to pollute can afford to do so. The result is a system that does nothing at all for climate change but a lot for the bottom lines of mega-polluters such as the steelmaker Corus: industrial assistance in camouflage.

I need to study this a bit more. It doesnt strike me as being fundamentally problematic if polluters dont get to hoard these permits indefinitely. Atleast superficially, the fall in prices is due to reduced demand, i.e., reduced output. If the gap between demand and available credits is not high enough (say 100 & 95 units instead of say, 100 & 70 units), it might make more sense for companies to wait to take advantage of regular market fluctuations, e.g., a company going bankrupt, instead of investing in alternatives. Thats seems to be the point the article is making. Now the question is whether people and companies would let the policy makers create higher scarcity to create stability in the price of carbon. Regulatory capture to some degree or other is the norm.

Other questions were raised about the whole issue of whether we really trust the credits being offered or not. This is an overview paper:

Accounting and the environment

Introducing a discussion of some of the ways in which accounting and other calculative mechanisms are involved in environmental matters, the article focuses on a number of questions that emerge from accounting for carbon emission permits and corporate environmental reporting. Both are areas where there is already a need for more research and where that need will increase in the coming years. Identifying some of the interests and pressures that already influence approaches in the area, the case is made for the need for both critical and facilitative research.

Climate change disclosure & SEC

2009-11-06T14:21:00.000-08:00

Catching up stuff...Was a little busy yesterday.

This news is somewhat dated but interesting nevertheless. This could be potentially real because big investment firms have asked for this information.

SEC says climate change disclosure a priority

The SEC plans to focus on climate change disclosure requirements once it completes working on corporate compensation disclosure proposals, said spokesman John Nester in a statement today.

“This is an area of great interest and we intend to focus on it,” he said in his statement.

His comment came in response to a letter sent last week by 41 institutional investors, urging the SEC to require corporations to disclose climate change and other environmental and social risks.

The request is from INCR - Investor Network on Climate Risk

INCR is a $7 trillion network of investors that promotes better understanding of the financial risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

Carbon Disclosure Project

2009-11-04T15:32:00.000-08:00

Carbon Disclosure Project

The Carbon Disclosure Project launched in 2000 to collect and distribute high quality information that motivates investors, corporations and governments to take action to prevent dangerous climate change.

We further this mission by harnessing the collective power of corporate CEO’s, investors and political leaders to accelerate unified action on climate change.

Over 2,000 organizations in some 60 countries around the world now measure and disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and climate change strategies through CDP, in order that they can set reduction targets and make performance improvements. This data is made available for use by a wide audience including institutional investors, corporations, policymakers and their advisors, public sector organizations, government bodies, academics and the public.

We operate the only global climate change reporting system. Climate change is not a problem that exists within national boundaries. That is why we harmonize climate change data from organizations around the world and develop international carbon reporting standards.

We act on behalf of 475 institutional investors, holding $55 trillion in assets under management and some 60 purchasing organizations such as Walmart, PepsiCo and Cadbury. View our programs to find out more.

Impact of Carbon Price

2009-11-04T15:17:00.000-08:00

Pinoy Partners give an estimate of
$22B at 3.75$/ton, $120B at 16-20$/ton, and > $300B if carbon price is 50$/ton in
the article Just how big is the economic impact of a carbon price?

They dig a bit bit deeper in the next post

A couple of interesting case studies - EDS (mostly computers) and International Paper:

EDS reported scope 2 emissions of more than 500,000 metric tons in 2007. The cost impact under carbon pricing: $2 million, $10 million, or $25 million at prices of $4/MTCO2e, $20/MTCO2e, and $50/MTCO2e, respectively. That comes out to about .3%, 1.4%, or 3.5%, respectively, of net income. Or take 3M: their scope 2 emissions in 2007 were about 1.7 million metric tons of CO2e. For them, carbon pricing on electricity could add as much as $85 million to costs, but that only represents about 2% of net income....International Paper, whose 3.2 million metric tons could cost them an extra $160 million, or almost 14% of net income...

How pervasive are the changes due to high carbon costs?

2009-11-04T14:05:00.000-08:00

This is a specific example of change of refrigerant in cars. How deeply will we as a society look at changes to our current systems in order to reduce carbon emissions? Is there a way to know whats next?

Car Industry Plans Shift to Low-Impact Refrigerant in A/C Systems

Fifteen years ago, the auto industry was forced to drop CFC-based refrigerant R-12 because of its liability for ozone depletion. They switched to non-CFC-based R-134a, which, as it turned out, also provided a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas liability. How much better is R-134a? Carbon dioxide has a global warming rating of 1. R-12 has a rating of 12,000. In other words, one pound of R-12 has the equivalent effect on global warming as 6 tons—12,000 pounds—of CO2. Years ago, that made R-134a’s rating of 1400 seem like a better deal. (As a point of reference, it takes one or two pounds of CO2 to dispense an entire keg of beer). But now automakers are considering a new refrigerant for worldwide use— R-1234yf. This new refrigerant has a global-warming impact number of just 4.

Carbon Management and Offsetting Trends

2009-11-04T10:30:00.000-08:00

A vendor-driven survey but has interesting nuggets of information.

EcoSecurities, ClimateBiz and Baker & McKenzie LLP publish the findings of their recent ‘Carbon Management and Offsetting Trends’ survey results 2009.

Over three quarters of companies have implemented or have started developing a carbon management strategy

Two thirds of respondents have already offset their carbon emissions or will consider offsetting in the future

Environmental benefits (91%) were highlighted as one of the main motivations for interest in carbon offsets, closely followed by carbon neutrality and marketing (89%)

72% of participants nominated the US as the most desirable geographic region for purchasing offsets; this may reflect the desire for domestic projects as 56% of the respondents came from North America. Africa and South America were also rated as highly desirable locations for emission reduction projects

Respondents prefer renewable energy projects above any other project type with solar scoring 92% and wind 86%

Book Review (RT)

2009-11-04T09:41:00.000-08:00

Book Review: Sustainable Energy -– Without the Hot Air (Matter Network)

Transportation: Today, electric cars need as little as 15 kWh for 100 kilometers while models running on oil need 70 to 90 kWh. Hence, electric cars are already five times more efficient than current conventional models....A full high speed train only consumes as little as 3 kWh per passenger, and biking consumes even less: 1 kWh.

Housing and buildings: The author is an advocate of both retrofitting and reducing the winter thermostat from 20°C to 17°C, which alone brings savings of 30% (page 292). By combining both solutions, David MacKay halved his heating bills. With a coefficient of performance (COP) of 4 to 5, heat pumps retrieve the heat contained in the outside air or soil and distribute it indoors. Another advantage of this solution is that it can bring air conditioning during hotter days.

The author is David J.C. MacKay. You can read the book online.

Energy lobby spending $300M

2009-11-03T20:28:00.000-08:00

Lobbying cash obscures US climate debate

Energy sector groups spent a total of $300 million (£183 million) in the third quarter of 2009 and were heading for a record spending year, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks lobbyist spending.

From January to September, some of the biggest energy lobby spenders included oil and gas ($120.7 million), electric utilities ($108 million) and alternative energy which showed a 40 per cent rise over last year to $23 million.

That makes the energy sector the third largest in terms of spending on lawmaker lobbying, campaign contributions, labor unions, business and special interest groups after health and business.

The spending is smaller than the health care industry lobby spending of $400M, it is still substantial. This is not quite complete either. This does not appear to include sponsorship of various events, programs, research/think tanks, and plain old marketing.

Additional information from Wikipedia:

In the 2006 election cycle, oil and gas companies alone contributed over $19 million to political campaigns. 82% of that money went to Republican candidates, while the remaining 18% went to Democrats. In 2004, oil and gas companies contributed over $25 million to political campaigns, donating 80% of that money to Republicans. In the 2000 elections, over $34 million was contributed, with 78% of that money going to Republicans. Electric utilities also heavily favor Republicans; their contributions have recently ranged between $15-20 million.[3][4] From 2003-2006, the Energy Lobby also contributed $58.3 million to state-level campaigns. By comparison, alternative energy interests contributed around half a million dollars in the same time period. [5]

Links for Nov 3, 2009

2009-11-03T09:33:00.000-08:00

Buffett the Empire Builder Buffet it seems is making the calculation that Coal plants are not going away anytime soon - which I agree with but it cannot be a good sign if he is seeing them as a growth industry.

Gore’s Dual Role in Spotlight: Advocate and Investor I have mixed feelings about this. People routinely use political influence to create markets for themselves in unprofitable industries (it is a long list!). But there is nothing inherently wrong about seeing the opportunity to make money and having a skin in the game (money) is a good thing (TM).

Cape Wind: NIMBYism Is Just Part of the Problem Well, people want their cake and eat it too. The article cites multiple interesting technical problems - the size of the turbines required, the platform to hold these, and cabling. But the opportunity exists - stronger and more consistent wind patterns.

Is Coal a four-lettered word?

2009-11-03T09:14:00.000-08:00

It is more than a rhetorical question.

I was fascinated by this story:
University Of Kentucky Approves New $7 Million Industry-Funded Dorm Named After ‘Coal’

Problem is that the coal-funded building has to be LEED certified for energy efficiency and pollution. The key constituencies that voted against this naming (and receiving the money) are students and faculty. It looks like a decision about the bottom-line.

Recently at a congressional hearing, one of the representatives compared the tactics of coal industry with that of the cigarette industry.

So when do you think Coal will turn radioactive much like cigarettes and Philip Morris?
Will we see symbol implying 'coal-free'? Who will display it?

Generating Electricity in a Carbon-Constrained World

2009-11-02T21:55:00.000-08:00

Generating Electricity in a Carbon-Constrained World

Slides of the presentation are here

RFF Policy Leadership Forum w/Steve specker
Thursday, March 30, 2006

Steve Specker
President and CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute

Dr. Specker discusses electricity-generation technologies and investment decisions in light of ongoing efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. He compares the costs of various options, including such technologies as wind, nuclear, biomass, pulverized coal, and gasification. In addition, he addresses key uncertainties affecting near-term decisions on new electricity generation.
...

Excellent talk. Summarizes the best understanding that we have so far in terms of constraints, choices, and available paths. The talk is upbeat in the sense that Steve does point to a viable path to get to 80% decrease in carbon emissions (2005 baseline).

Smartgrids - Initial Observations

2009-11-02T21:36:00.000-08:00

Smartgrids is a broad phrase that refers to an intelligent electricity distribution infrastructure. Its objective is to increase the efficiency of the electricity consumption - to a first level of approximation. It is not completely clear but there is a chance that this change will create new systems design problems and problem spaces.

There are two reasons for increasing efficiency:

1. Carbon costs
2. Demand growth

There is a growing consensus that carbon costs will be imposed as a way to account for externalities associated with energy consumption. This is becoming more of a reality with every passing day whether or not there is an agreement in Copenhagen.

The normal demand growth due to appliances and population growth is creating pressures in parts of the distribution network. A new source of demand growth is the new electric vehicles which shift the energy/carbon burden from transportation to electricity utilities.

Smart grid will combine four things:

1. Greater renewable energy generation such as solar and wind
2. More efficient distribution of electricity
3. More intelligent use of energy at homes and businesses
4. Massive energy storage

There is a significant amount of information generation and consumption and coordination that will be supported by an IT infrastructure. Depending on which part of the system you look at, you will find a different subsystem that can constructed, optimized, secured and managed.

For example, the AMIs (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) will be able to communicate to the utility IT system and possibly with some control function within the homes and enterprises. Southern California Edison (SCE) will deploy upto 5M such devices in the field by 2011. The
communication and maintenance costs of these AMIs is significant. An interesting problem is how to reduce the communication without loss of information to reduce costs? How to upgrade these systems on the fly? How to secure these system at the minimum possible cost?

There will definitely be more. But the reality is as follows:

0. Unlike IT, the utility system has 'closed' architecture, for good reasons of reliability and predictability.

1. Utilities have little upside for changing other than meeting regulatory requirements. They are paid based on assets such as poles and wires and not for innovation.

2. Utilities have little capacity to cope with the change. Their internal IT systems are antiquated and they allocate few resources for IT.

3. There are emerging standards but the need is today.

4. The people network that is needed to support a large industry such as electricity is limited. Unlike the internet space, there are few interest groups outside industry consortia and conferences.

Your thoughts?

Share your thoughts

2009-11-02T20:50:00.000-08:00

This blog is really intended to start a conversation on how the world will look as we get on the path of continuously reducing carbon consumption in our life - whether the consumption is through plastic toys made from petrochemicals, gas to heat our homes, petrol to run our vehicles or electricity to run this laptop.

It seems to me the consensus is building that we have to get on this path. We are reaching or the tipping point where we will begin a large scale action. It may take the form of smart grid, energy efficiency, electric vehicles, solar heating - you name it. It is not this method or that, or here or there. It is everywhere. We all are participants - young and old, rich and poor, closer and farther....

This next few years will be bumpy, exciting, and in the end good for all of us. We will think lot more about our relationship to the environment and to each other.

Lets take this opportunity to make a serious effort to build a sustainable world.

What are you thinking? What are talking? What are planning?

Share your best ideas so that we can all benefit.

-Venkata